Spring Grove, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

401
FXUS63 KGID 082052
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
352 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Spotty and isolated storm chances return almost each night for limited
  portions of the area. The best potential lies towards the end
  of the week (Saturday and Sunday nights up to 15-35%). Severe
  weather is not expected at this time.
- Temperatures will continue to warm back into the 80s, with a
  majority of the area in the low 90s by Friday.
- A few patches of fog will be possible tonight, spreading in
  from the northwest. It is not very likely for fog to spread
  much further south and east of the Tri-Cities.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Synopsis/Overview...
Broad ridging centered over the Rockies again today will continue to
slide east into the Central Plain across midweek, raising mid to
upper level heights as well as temperatures. At the surface,
southerly flow will stay around, keeping the warm air advecting
pattern alive through most of the week. Temperatures as a result
should gradually raise into the upper 80s to low 90s by Friday
(projected to be the warmest day of the week). A few embedded
shortwaves passing through may stir up a some spotty showers and
storms most days with a little more of a coherent precipitation
signal for the weekend as a upper-level low clips our northwest.
Short Term...(Tonight & Tuesday)
Though the potential for an isolated storm or two developing this
evening/night remains a possibility, probability currently lies on the
lower end of the spectrum (15% chance). The CAMs have gone back and
forth with the total number of storms developing, limiting our
confidence overall. A few showers east of HWY-281 this afternoon may
be the only precipitation that occurs tonight beyond a rogue
storm coming off of the Nebraska Sandhills. The best
precipitation potential for the region actually lies just east
and outside of our area Tuesday morning where the low-level jet
axis is projected to lie (best chances east of HWY-81). Severe
weather is not expected.
Lows tonight will range the upper 50s to low 60s, likely the coolest
lows across the next 7 nights. A few areas of patchy fog spreading
down from the northwest is possible tonight into Tuesday morning,
though confidence does not suggest for fog to be able reach areas
much further south or east of the Tri-Cities. Winds for Tuesday
should be weaker than today, only blowing from 5-10 MPH out of the
south to southeast at times. Temperatures for Tuesday will peak in
the low to mid 80s. A few storms are possible late Tuesday night
into early Wednesday morning for areas mainly south and west of the
Tri-Cities (15-20% chance). Severe weather is not expected at
this time, though an isolated stronger storm can`t be marked
out.
Long Term...(Wednesday through Sunday)
As the week progresses, the upper-level ridge will slowly move away
as a North Pacific centered low churns east towards the Rockies
and High Plains. Spotty storm chances return Wednesday night
(15-30%) with the best potential towards the south and
southeast. A lull in precipitation chances currently leave
Thursday and most of Friday dry. Another spotty low-confidence
precipitation chance rests overnight Friday in a few of our
western and northwestern places (15- 20%).
A change up in the upper-level pattern Saturday should cut of the
gradually warming trend and looks to bring even better and more
widespread precipitation chances. The upper-level low, mentioned
previously, is projected to swipe by our northwest bringing in some
mid-level vorticity advection to support broad regional assent. The
best precipitation chances for the full week reside Saturday night
into Sunday (20-35%) with chances returning Sunday night (15-30%).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
A few sneaky low-level clouds creeping up from the south may
temporarily bring MVFR ceilings through 21-22z today. Some low
clouds may linger thereafter, though the overall coverage should
be clear enough to break up MVFR ceilings. VFR conditions
should hold out this evening and night until 8-12z when a few
lower clouds again may challenge MVFR conditions.
Besides ceilings, winds will be fairly gutsy (up to
30-35 MPH) this afternoon out of the south and weakening
overnight. LLWS is possible, though too marginal to confidently
include in the TAF period. Though the chance of precipitation
can also not be 100% ruled out, waning probability does not
give us enough confidence to include in the TAF.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Areal Flood Warning for Mitchell County Kansas:
A few showers that overstayed their welcome in Mitchell county this
morning deposited up to 4 to 10" in places across southeastern
portions of the county. This has prompted the need for an areal
flood warning to remain in effect until 2PM Tuesday as areas where
standing water or runoff has collected could lead to rising waters
along a few local rivers, streams or creaks.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump
HYDROLOGY...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion