Sterling, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

615
FXUS62 KJAX 050601
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
201 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding this Weekend and Next Week.
  Coastal Flood Warning: Moderate Tidal Flood impacts within the
  St. Johns River Basin, Coastal Northeast FL & Intracoastal
  Waterway. Coastal Flood Advisory: Minor Tidal Flood impacts
  Coastal Southeast GA & Nassau Co.
- Dangerous Beach & Marine Conditions through Tuesday, and Likely
  Return Thursday and continue into Next Weekend. High Rip Current
  Risk, High Surf & Small Craft Advisory
- Locally Heavy Rainfall & Flood Risk on Monday. Isolated coastal
  Thunderstorms on Sunday Night and Monday. Localized Flood Risk
  at Coastal & Normally Flood Prone, Low-lying Locations
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Gusty showers moving onshore from the Atlantic waters will create
periods of IFR conditions at SSI through around 10Z. IFR
conditions are expected to prevail at VQQ through around sunrise
on Sunday, with periods of LIFR conditions possible during the
predawn hours. Otherwise, periods of MVFR conditions will be
possible at the Duval County terminals and SGJ through Sunday
morning, as widely scattered showers continue to push onshore.
Confidence in timing and coverage was too low to indicate anything
other than vicinity coverage through noon on Sunday at the Duval
County terminals. Showers should increase in coverage and
intensity near the SGJ terminal towards sunrise, and we used a
series of PROB30 groups throughout the day and evening on Sunday
at SGJ for brief wind gusts up to 30 knots and IFR conditions
during heavier downpours. PROB30 groups were placed in the TAFS
elsewhere on Sunday afternoon and evening for brief wind gusts up
to 30 knots and MVFR to IFR conditions during heavier downpours. A
few thunderstorms may approach the GNV and SGJ terminals during
the late afternoon and evening hours, but confidence was too low
to indicate vicinity coverage at this time. Outside of easterly
surface winds sustained around 10 knots at SGJ overnight will
increase to around 15 knots and gusty after 12Z. Northeasterly
surface winds sustained at 5-10 knots elsewhere will shift to
easterly after sunrise, with speeds increasing to 10-15 knots and
gusty by 17Z.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
High pressure will remain centered to the northeast this period,
with ridging extending across the southeastern US. An inverted
trough will remain along the coastal waters. With this pattern, a
pinched gradient will be in place, resulting in a moist and gusty
onshore flow. The greatest chance for showers will be near the
coast, with this activity falling apart as it encounters drier air
further inland. A few coastal thunderstorms will also be possible.
Due to the enhanced gradient winds will be elevated and gusty Today,
especially near the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Mean upper ridging will remain situated overhead to wrap up the
weekend. There will be a southeasterly shift in mid level flow as a
weak frontal feature aloft lifts northward. This will enhance deep
moisture and enhance potential for deeper, but still fast-moving,
convection Sunday afternoon. For context, mean PWATs from LREF
guidance indicates mean PWATs around 2" which is around the 80th
percentile for climo. With broken skies, diurnal heating will be
somewhat limited by cloudiness but anticipate enough for sufficient
instability. Some instability and a weak shortwave lifting north
should combine to force up a few thunderstorms along the I-75
corridor Sunday afternoon. Given the rich moisture, heavy rain rates
may lead to localized flood concerns in urban areas; however, storm
motions around 20 mph should limit flood risk.
Anomalously high deep moisture stays in place Monday but upper
flow will weaken some but breezy onshore flow and coastal trough
convergence will keep chances for showers and isolated storms
through Monday as well. Surface pressure gradients don`t feature a
lot of change through the end of the weekend and remain tightly
packed, keeping breezy to gusty onshore winds going into the
upcoming work week.
Temperatures will be slightly below normal due to the passing
showers, cloudiness and onshore flow.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
A more progressive northern stream will send successive fronts
toward the area during the late part of next week. More confidence
in the arrival of the first front Thursday, bringing a renewed surge
of strong northeasterly onshore winds. This will exacerbate and
continue coastal hazards, including rip currents, coastal flooding,
dangerous maritime boating conditions, and rough surf, into next
weekend. The typical nor`easter conditions are to be expected
Thursday and Friday. Though it`s a bit far out, the gradient
compression with the incoming front may be enough to push coastal
winds toward Wind Advisory level (gusts > 40 mph) on Thursday/Friday.
We`ll assess the potential over the next few days.
There is a bit more uncertainty regarding the depth of the next
upper trough as it digs out of Canada next weekend. Clustered
guidance does lean bit toward a more amplified wave which would send
a stronger front our way next weekend, potentially sweeping out some
of the linger moisture resulting in drying and cooling conditions.
Until then, coastal troughing will keep a slight chance of showers
at the beaches next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
The current pattern with high pressure centered to the northeast,
and a trough over the coastal waters will continue through early
next week. This will keep the elevated and gusty winds, along with
bands of showers in the forecast. A few thunderstorms will be
possible, mainly during the afternoons. The pattern changes briefly
mid week, as the high moves away, and a cold front moves through.
High pressure is expected to build to the north, with troughing
over the waters later next week, bringing a return to the elevated
conditions.
Rip Currents: High Risk through Tuesday
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
With very little change in pattern through Tuesday, have extended
coastal flood products into Tuesday afternoon. Conditions will
subside midweek, before another round of elevated onshore flow
arrives late in the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  84  70  85  68 /  50  10  30  10
SSI  82  73  83  74 /  50  30  40  20
JAX  85  73  84  72 /  60  30  60  20
SGJ  84  74  84  75 /  60  40  70  40
GNV  88  72  87  72 /  50  20  60  20
OCF  86  73  86  73 /  60  20  60  20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124.
High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125-138-233-
     333.
Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ125-132-137-
     138-225-233-325-333-633.
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166.
High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion