Stuart, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

498
FXUS63 KLBF 031745
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1245 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Multiple days of elevated to near-critical fire weather
  conditions are likely Friday and Saturday, with greatest
  concern on Saturday.
- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is in place
  for late Saturday as rain and thunderstorms return to the
  forecast favoring western Nebraska.
- Much cooler temperatures arrive for early next week with
  values falling 5 to 10F below normal by Monday with a slow
  climb back to above normal values by late week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Early this morning, satellite imagery depicted mostly clear skies
across western and central Nebraska save for some mid-level clouds
invof the Missouri River. Did insert a mention of patchy fog early
this morning across mainly southwest and portions of central
Nebraska. This lines up with latest HREF/SREF probability maximas,
however, dense fog is not expected. Outside of this fog potential,
expecting largely a sunny to mostly sunny day. With anomalous warmth
off the surface through the mid-levels characterized by h85 through
h5 values exceeding the 90th percentile, will see another warm day
across the region. Forecast highs this afternoon will be nearly
identical from Thursday`s values with middle 80s to low 90s, warmest
along the Nebraska/South Dakota border. In addition to that, will
likely see another breezy day with south winds gusting up to 30 mph.
These magnitudes fall just short of the median output of the always
aggressive NBM guidance but closer to hi-resolution guidance output.
Forecast soundings, particularly the NAM, show limited boundary
layer mixing which is reasonable given southeasterly winds and this
should prevent stronger winds from occurring. Winds should remain
breezy well into the overnight through frequency of the stronger
gusts should wane. Lows tonight should hover in the middle 50s west
to middle 60s east. These final values are on the warmer side
compared to statistical guidance but believe as a stronger LLJ takes
shape, we may struggle if not be unable completely to decouple and
so opted to keep things on the mild side.
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1241 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Saturday/Saturday Night...more active weather arrives as a
disturbance bringing a multi-faceted weather setup moves through the
region. Ridge breakdown begins by early Saturday as deep troughing
across the West Coast quickly lifts north and east across the
central and northern Rockies. By afternoon, as the main disturbance
begins to cross the Continental Divide, lift will increase leading
to modest cyclogenesis. A surface cool front will track south and
east out of South Dakota later in the day but ahead of the feature
strengthening southerly flow will support stronger surface winds
amid another very mild day. With mid-level temperatures still
running above normal and now a more compressed pressure gradient,
expect better boundary layer mixing which should boost afternoon
highs by a few degrees for many. Deeper mixing should be able to tap
into stronger flow as a speed max centered around h7 settles
overhead. Forecast soundings show a good setup for efficient
momentum transfer owing to largely unidirectional flow. The result
is wind gusts likely exceeding 40 mph for many and perhaps as high
as 50 mph for a select few. Cannot completely rule out the need for
High Wind Warnings (50+ knots for any duration) but for now,
confidence is limited. Still though, NBM guidance suggests
probabilities of 50-80% for exceeding 48 knot gusts across portions
of southwest and central Nebraska. Will need to monitor this threat
going forward. As the frontal boundary begins to sag south into
western Nebraska, mid-level PV anomalies will begin to cross the
Front Range. This will lead to scattered to widespread rain and
thunderstorms. While recent trends have been to slow the arrival of
precipitation, a few locations in our far west may see activity as
early as mid-afternoon before the main wave and brunt of the
precipitation potential arrives for the evening and overnight.
Instability is sorely lacking largely due to meager lapse rates
aloft. That said...strong forcing, strong shear, and just enough
instability (~500 j/kg MUCAPE) should be enough to support at least
a damaging wind gust potential as activity moves off the higher
terrain. Believe any hail threat should be confined to the west of
the forecast area. Hi-resolution guidance, notable the long range
06z HRRR and NAM Nest show discrete storms west of the Highway 385
corridor and upscale growth occurring as activity crosses into the
Sandhills. This jives well with the thinking that wind gusts will be
the main concern. Rainfall potential does not appear to be overly
significant with both EPS/GEFS probabilities of exceeding 0.10" for
the day generally 70% or less outside the Pine Ridge area. With
ongoing convection, the cool front will be reinforced and quickly
shunted south and east out of the area. Dry conditions return by
early Sunday morning though the cooler temperatures may not quite be
apparent yet until later Sunday and Monday.
Sunday and Monday...though the frontal boundary will remain across
central Nebraska, broad westerly/northwesterly flow on Sunday will
begin the cooldown the start the week. Canadian high pressure will
nose in from the northwest and with CAA behind the front, expect a
considerable day-over-day change with breezy conditions continuing.
Highs will range from near 60F in the northwest, to the middle 70s
further south and east. While most precipitation potential should
focus along the frontal boundary later in the day which will remain
well east of the local area, some upslope flow thanks to developing
low pressure to the south may be enough to reintroduce Chance (<
50%) PoPs late Sunday into early Monday. Favored areas will again be
the Sandhills into Panhandle though QPF remains light at 0.10" or
less for most. The coolest day of the week will be Monday with
forecast highs set to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Though
not overly noteworthy, it`ll certainly feel more fall-like under
mostly cloudy skies. Precipitation chances may redevelop later in
the day favoring south of the Platte River system but ensemble
solutions remain split so confidence is low.
Tuesday and beyond...expecting a slow moderation of temperatures in
extended period. Largely below normal values should persist beyond
late week before a return to more seasonable values by the end of
the forecast period. This coincides with shortwave ridging building
across the southern and central Plains around Wednesday/Thursday.
Evolution of the upper-level flow in this timeframe remains
questionable at best as deterministic solutions show large
variations beginning Thursday. Even ensemble solutions show
appreciable discrepancies. Overall, it does appear that ridging will
once again build in towards the following weekend with some trough
moving onshore the West Coast around Friday/Saturday. How a decaying
eastern Pacific tropical system plays in all that will need to be
monitored as a large infusion of moisture appears probable as a
result but how far northeast this treks will be something to watch.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Southerly winds will increase this afternoon through Saturday as
a storm system approaches from the west. Southerly low-level jet
will also lead to wind shear concerns tonight, generally along
and southeast of an ANW to LBF line. Otherwise VFR conditions
can be expected to prevail through the period.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NJ
LONG TERM...NJ
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion