Sugar Camp, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

410
FXUS63 KGRB 261754
AFDGRB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1254 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An extended period of low-impact weather is forecast through
  next Thursday. Above average temperatures are expected during
  this time. Greatest chances (40-70%) of highs reaching or
  exceeding 80 degrees will be Saturday and Monday.
- Any fog late this morning should be quite patchy. More fog is
  possible tonight into Saturday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Patchy dense fog will be possible this morning; however,
observations and model data indicate it will not be as ubiquitous
or dense as the last few nights.
A weak moisture starved cold front will continue sinking south
through the area today, bringing slightly cooler temperatures to
the region. Some clouds will sink south behind the cold front
today, with some sprinkles possible across central and east-
central Wisconsin this afternoon. Some patchy fog is once again
possible late tonight into Saturday morning as moisture gets
trapped in the lowest portion of the atmosphere underneath a
subsidence inversion.
High pressure will then be firmly in control of the weather this
upcoming weekend and well into next week as an upper level ridge
establishes itself over the Great Lakes region. This will bring
dry weather and well above normal conditions for this time of
year. In fact the probability of hitting at least 80 is highest on
Saturday (40-70% chance) east of Stevens Point as well as on
Monday (40-70% chance) across much of central and east-central
Wisconsin. The coolest night will be Saturday night when some
upper 30s will be possible across northern Wisconsin, with lows
generally in the 40s and 50s during this period. This pattern will
continue to favor fog during the late night/early morning, with
some nights experiencing more widespread and denser fog than
others.
&&
.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A band of MVFR ceilings associated with a weak cold front were
impacting the southern part of the forecast area early this
afternoon, but should drop south of the ATW/MTW TAF sites within
an hour or two. Farther north, VFR stratocumulus were observed
along the Hwy 29 corridor. Much drier air and clear skies covered
far northern WI.
Expect most of the clouds to move out of the area or erode by
sunset. Models are most aggressive with fog development over
our southwest counties (central and parts of north central WI)
overnight, but with boundary layer winds increasing to 15-25 kts
there, stratus may actually be more favored. Farther east, at
least patchy fog is expected, as surface and boundary layer winds
are lighter. As a result, we have added a bit more fog at the
eastern TAF sites. The fog and stratus should erode by 13-14z/Sat.
Another cold front will move across the forecast area on
Saturday, and should pass through the western TAF sites by
16z-17z/Sat. The front will result in a wind shift to the west,
and there may also be a narrow band of stratocumulus clouds as
well.
There is a small chance of LLWS ahead of the cold front in NC WI
late tonight into early Saturday, but it looks too borderline to
include at the RHI TAF site at this point.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion