Sugarloaf, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

228
FXUS62 KKEY 051511
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1111 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
What was a busy start to the morning has started to calm down and
now KBYX is only detecting a few isolated light showers in the
deep Gulf waters. While showers are currently limited, the KKEY
12z sounding revealed ample moisture in the atmosphere. MIMIC
Precipitable Water also depicts we are in a very moist
environment. Temperatures across the island chain are currently
in the mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s making for a humid
mid- morning. Along the Reef, winds are northeast to east at near
10 knots. For today, showers will continue to pop up in various
locations across the CWA but coverage is still expected to be just
above near normal for this time of year, though due to the lack
of steering flow, these showers will continue to struggle to
sustain themselves. Winds will slightly slacken in the afternoon
becoming light to gentle. No changes were needed for this update.
Happy Sunday!
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1111 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect in the
Florida Keys. From synopsis, a combination of a stationary
frontal boundary and a weak area of low pressure situated near the
Bahamas will make for a messy weather pattern through the next
several days. This will maintain above normal rain chances through
the entire forecast period. In addition, it will keeps winds
fluctuating between northeast and southeast at times. At this
time, the strongest breezes look to stay north of our waters but
will bear watching for updates.
&&
.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Some light showers are possible through the afternoon but
confidence in location will leave mention of VCSH out of the TAFs.
Near surface winds will be northeast to east at 5 to 10 knots.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for FLZ076>078.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion