Sullivan City, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

934
FXUS64 KBRO 261041 AAA
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
541 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
In comparison to the previous weeks, an overall drier forecast is
expected across Deep South Texas over the next 7 days, though there
remains a chance of showers and thunderstorms most days east of US-
281 along the seabreeze boundary through the afternoon, with the
highest chances closer to the coast. Slight upper level divergence
from a departing trough over the eastern CONUS and lift provided
from a frontal boundary lingering near the Rio Grande Valley have
the potential to generate a low (15-20%) chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms for southern portions of the lower RGV and
SPI through the mid-morning and early afternoon hours today. By
this evening, ridging behind the trough takes over, pushing the
front further south, filtering in drier air behind it and keeping
mostly dry conditions across all of the region through the daytime
Sunday, with PoP`s less than 10%. Chances of rain increase a bit
for the beginning of the week as weak coastal troughing results
from upper level divergence and energy from shortwaves moving over
southern-central Texas, leading to a low to medium (15-30%)
chance Sunday night into Monday. Chances decrease to a low
(15-20%) chance Tuesday through Thursday as mid-level ridging
builds over the CWA from an expanding mid-level high pressure over
northwestern Mexico. PoP`s could increase towards the end of the
work week next week as mid-level ridging may break down.
One last day of above average high temperatures (upper 90`s) is
anticipated today for the mid/upper RGV and the Rio Grande as the
front lingers nearby. As the front pushes south of the region by
this evening, east-northeasterly winds in its wake will aid in
filtering drier air southward, making for comfortable conditions for
the remainder of the forecast with near to slightly below average
highs, only reaching the upper 80`s and low 90`s in the beginning of
next week, before rising to the low/mid 90`s as the week progresses.
Lows in the upper 60`s to lower 70`s persist.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR will persist at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours with
clear skies and light winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Favorable marine conditions prevail through the forecast period as
mainly gentle northeasterly to easterly winds continue to result in
slight (1-3 feet) seas. A low to medium (20-40) chance of showers
and thunderstorms returns Sunday night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             91  75  91  73 /  20   0  10  10
HARLINGEN               93  71  93  68 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 98  74  97  71 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         98  72  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  81  87  79 /  20   0  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     89  74  89  73 /  10   0  10  10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion