Sullivan, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

003
FXUS61 KRLX 141032
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
632 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Redundant dry and unseasonably warm pattern continues until at
least mid week. Chances for precipitation return for some late
Tuesday. Elevated risk for wildfire start continues.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 AM Sunday...
Seeing some high-level cloud cover moving over the forecast area
with a disturbance posturing to our west. This front will
slowly migrate towards the area later this morning into the
afternoon. Radar shows some slight returns appearing over the
area with some moisture aloft. A spot of drizzle or two is
possible, but surface high pressure and drier air remains too
stubborn to allow the majority of it to reach the surface and
will evaporate. That said, fog formation will be tentative with
the cloud cover and light winds. Spots across the northeastern
mountains with no dew point depression have higher chances for
seeing fog form. If skies clear out later this morning then more
fog development will be on the table.
Otherwise, the forecast for today remains unchanged. Skies will
be mostly clear, but fleeting mid to high level clouds are
possible during the day with the front nearby. High temperatures
will be very warm to hot with the lowlands reaching the upper
80s, with some locations flirting with 90 degrees. The mountains
will stay in the 70s to the lower 80s. These temperatures are
unseasonably warm for this time of the year.
Partial fire weather risks linger with relative humidity
percentages dropping into the upper 20s and 30s once again this
afternoon. Winds will be light enough to allow for decrease in
spread should one spawn and thus mitigates the need for
headlines. RH values will recover tonight with lows dropping
into the 50s and lower 60s. More abundant fog development will
be more possible tonight into Monday morning with clearer skies
in the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...
High pressure and ridge pattern maintain the dry spell and
unseasonable warmth trend as we commence a new week. Monday will
be very warm and hot across the area with highs in the lowlands
once more achieving the upper 80s and lower 90s. Elevated fire
start risk also persists given these unseasonably warm high
temperatures and dew points in the 50s, but winds will be too
light to allow for impactful fire weather conditons. Afternoon
RH values will likely be in the upper 20s and 30s on Monday.
Tuesday will be a bit less warm for the mountains and central
mountains as a disturbance parks overhead. Highs will be about 5
to 7 degrees less warm, but the Tri-State Area and portions of
Ohio will likely reach the mid to upper 80s again. That said,
these locations could see low humidity values in the 30 percent
range. Winds will be a bit elevated in the afternoon, though
still light at 7-12 mph so will have to watch how this front is
projected to evolve.
Ridge pattern augments late Tuesday with flow aloft, becoming
more zonal as an offshore system approaches the Carolinas and
surface high pressure recedes northeast. Chances (15-30%) for
precipitation return across our easternmost counties Tuesday
night as a result.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM Sunday...
Aforementioned system offshore deepens Wednesday as it moves
onshore around the VA/NC tidewater area. Models are starting to
bring this system more inland with each run. Subsequently models
are starting to increase chances for precipitation across our
area Wednesday. Chances are still small between 15-30% and are
mostly confined to the eastern slopes and the higher terrain of
our northeastern mountains. Models still differ on outcomes with
the track of this system; the ECMWF and CMC keeping higher
chances with the GFS staying slightly more conservative, though
it is starting to hint at siding with the others.
Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm until the weekend
when temperatures are projected to be closer to normal. A system
approaches from the west on Saturday that looks to introduce
more promising chances for precipitation and maybe even
convective activity. A stout warm sector materializes ahead of
a potent low over IL/IN. Models are showing it pass to our
southwest and then position a stalling frontal boundary across
our area on Sunday. It is possible that we could see some
beneficial rainfall this weekend, though it is still too far
out for genuine confidence.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 632 AM Sunday...
VFR conditions return by ~14z after any fog dissipates. Skies
will mostly be clear with a few mid-level clouds moving
overhead at times with a front nearby. Winds will be light and
variable today. Another round of fog is expected tonight and
could be dense in spots.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of conditions returning to VFR may
vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in valley fog each morning through
at least early next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 320 AM Sunday...
Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will lead to an elevated risk
for fire ignition into mid week. Minimum relative humidity
values across the lowlands will generally be in the upper 20s to
lower 30s, but recovery is expected to occur each night. Winds
will remain light, generally below 10 mph, which will limit the
threat of fire spread.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
FIRE WEATHER...LTC

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion