Summerland, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

787
FXUS62 KCAE 061752
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
152 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Another hot and humid day is expected today ahead of an
approaching cold front. Some strong storms possible Saturday
afternoon and evening as this front moves in. This boundary
moves through the area this weekend, bringing the risk of
showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier air follows for
early next week, followed by a warming trend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):
- Hot and humid conditions this afternoon ahead of a line of
  showers & storms.
- A broken line of storms will push through the CSRA and I-20
  corridor this afternoon and evening.
A strong upper trough and associated surface front is digging
across TN this afternoon and a broken line of convection is
developing within the prominent prefrontal trough in AL and GA.
Guidance has struggling notably with the timing of these storms,
currently several hours faster than the HRRR and HREF have
shown. But environmentally guidance is doing better, depicting a
broad field of moderate instability (roughly 1250-1750 ML CAPE)
and some moderate effective shear over 25 knots. Some lower
PWAT`s and surface dew points are in place downstream across our
area, but this current environment to our west should allow for
some maintenance of these storms. Timing- wise, these should
push into the CSRA between 5-7pm and then up the I-20 corridor
through 10pm. While the HRRR is struggling with timing, it does
explicitly show some stronger gusts possible as the line
matures, so some gusts over 40 mph are possible especially
combining this with current mesoanalysis trends; the severe
threat will be limited given the fairly weak instability across
the area, but if a strong cold pool can develop, some strong-
severe winds cannot be ruled out especially in the CSRA this
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- A cold front will move through the area Sunday, resulting in
  scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms,
  mainly south of the I-20 corridor.
- A large temperature gradient is expected on Sunday due to the
  passing cold front with a cooler and drier air mass building
  into the region by Monday
Sunday and Sunday Night: A secondary shortwave will move
through the base of the upper trough across the Great Lakes
region on Sunday. This will push a cold front southward through
the forecast area Sunday. The axis of highest PWATs with values
around 1.8-1.9 inches will be over the Midlands and shifting
toward the Coastal Plain during peak heating resulting in
scattered convection along and ahead of the front, mainly south
of the I-20 corridor. The chances of severe weather are non-zero
but seems to be low with generally poor lapse rates and weak to
moderate instability, despite above normal moisture. Expect a
strong temperature gradient across the forecast area with highs
ranging from the upper 70s to near 80 in the northern Midlands
to around 90 degrees in the southeastern Midlands and lower
CSRA.
Convection should diminish and shift toward the coast Sunday
evening as cooler and drier air builds into the region from the
northwest. The front is expected to stall out near the coast
overnight but a strong PWAT gradient will remain across the
region and mid level clouds expected to remain across the
eastern Midlands. Overnight lows expected to be cooler Sunday
night but radiational cooling will be limited due to cloud cover
with lows ranging from the lower 60s northwest to the mid 60s
southeast.
Monday and Monday Night: Surface high pressure centered over
the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region will shift east through
the day with cooler and drier air continuing to ridge into the
forecast area. This should tighten the PWAT gradient closer to
the coast and keep any convection confined to the coast, but
there still could be some showers that reach the eastern
Midlands. An enhanced pressure gradient should provide breezy
conditions on Monday with some wind gusts Temperatures will be
noticeably cooler with less humid conditions with max
temperatures expected in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Cooler and drier weather expected next week behind the front
  before warming during the late week period.
Generally a cool and dry pattern expected early in the extended
forecast period Tue/Wed with anomalously high surface pressure
in place and weak troughing aloft. High temperatures continue to
be about 10 degrees cooler than normal both days with
persistent northeasterly flow and quite a bit of cloud cover
with an inverted trough located just off the coast. The model
blended forecast keeps the forecast area dry except for some low
chances of rain across the eastern Midlands Tuesday afternoon
into Wednesday where some deeper moisture may shift back
westward associated with the inverted trough. The atmosphere
remains stable so thunderstorms would not be expected, primarily
showers.
Another shortwave trough moves from the Great Lakes region to
the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday night into Thursday pushing the
deeper moisture offshore as the surface inverted trough breaks
down and pushes further away from the coast. Dry weather and
warming temperatures expected for the end of the week with highs
back near normal in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will
continue to be near normal in the lower to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions likely through later this afternoon when a line
of storms will bring a mix of restrictions.
Typical summer afternoon is in place this afternoon with only
some scattered cu to note. A strong front however is approaching
from the west with some associated convection and thunderstorms
pushing into GA. These will likely impact the CSRA and AGS-DNL
later this afternoon, bringing some gusty winds and other
restrictions typical of thunderstorms; ran with a tempo for the
time being for those sites. Confidence is a bit lower in impacts
at CAE, CUB, and OGB, so continued a prob30 for those sites
with likely amendments coming to update. Behind the line of
storms, winds should relax and the added moisture from any
storms will help develop some morning stratus and fog;
confidence currently highest in CAE and CUB for Sunday morning.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Front will be in the vicinity on Sunday
adding chances for possible restrictions. A cooler and drier air
mass should settle over the region early next week behind the
front.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion