Surfside, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

875
FXUS62 KILM 140631
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
231 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will generally prevail inland with offshore low
pressure shifting northward into mid week, possibly bringing
some rain to the area. High pressure should then return later in
the week with warmer and generally dry weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Another quiet weather day on tap for your Sunday courtesy of weak
sfc high pressure over the Carolinas. Low pressure is progged to
develop offshore, but associated rain chances will hold off for one
more day as low and mid levels will remain fairly dry. Otherwise,
NNE flow continues, gusty at times right along the coast. Temps
again slightly below normal for mid September...highs in the low/mid
80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Near to above normal rain chances possible, mainly near/north
 of Wilmington
*Below normal temps
Confidence:
*Moderate
Details: No major changes from the previous forecast. Still some
uncertainty revolving around the track of low pressure offshore
and how close showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder get
to SE NC and NE SC. As of now the best rain chances/amounts
should generally be north of Cape Fear closer to the low but
some will depend on the track of the upper low and associated
forcing as well. Most likely rain amounts are a few tenths of an
inch with potential higher end amounts around an inch. Highs
should mainly be near 80 Mon and mid to upper 70s Tue with lows
both nights mostly in the lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Warming trend w/ temps getting back close to and even above normal
late week
*Near to below normal rain chances
Confidence:
*Moderate to High
Details: No significant changes to the mid to late week period. Deep
low pressure over the area early Wed should start to give way to
more high pressure through late week. This will lead to increasing
temps and pretty low rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR and dry through the 06Z TAF period. Persistent N-NE winds at 5-
10 kt this morning increase to 10-15 kt with occasional gusts up to
20 kt during the day, especially at the coastal terminals. Clouds
will mainly be high clouds, with some lower altocu possible near the
coast.
Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR continues but dependent on
positioning of an upper low...MVFR clouds may get drawn across the
terminals Monday and Tuesday, but confidence is low.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Seas up to 6 ft continue over the outer portions
of the marine zones this morning so the SCA continues through 8am.
Winds and seas slightly weaken today as the pressure gradient
relaxes a bit, but SCA conditions are again possible late tonight
into Monday with sfc low pressure developing offshore...will re-
evaluate and update accordingly later this morning before the
current headline ends. The long fetch and duration of the NE winds
means an 8 sec swell will be the dominant contributor to the wave
heights.
Monday through Thursday...High pressure looks to persist inland
while low pressure offshore likely tracks slowly north into mid
week. Winds/seas will remain elevated early in the week before
diminishing in accordance with the weakening pressure gradient as
the low moves farther away. A Small Craft Advisory will probably be
needed through Mon night, especially for the NC waters.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The full moon and elevated north to northeast winds will keep water
levels higher than normal today. Minor coastal flooding is likely
for the Southeast NC coast, and possible for the Northeast SC coast,
with the afternoon high tide cycle. Locations along the banks of the
lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington southward can expect minor
coastal flooding with the afternoon high tide cycles through Mon.
Due to persistent and modest NE winds continuing today, expect the
continuation of a strong north to south longshore current along the
Pender, New Hanover, and Georgetown County Beaches.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 4 PM EDT this
     afternoon for NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     this evening for NCZ107.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...RJB/MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion