Surprise, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

917
FXUS63 KOAX 172327
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
627 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered off-and-on showers and storms are expected through
  this evening. The best chance for additional rainfall will be
  over northeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. There is a small
  chance for a severe storm.
- Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is
  expected on Thursday, and perhaps once again on Friday. Severe
  weather is unlikely.
- Cooler temperatures in the 70s through late week, with warming
  temperatures into the 80s returning this weekend into early
  next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
A broad trough centered over the central and northern Great Plains
continues to inch towards the east early this afternoon. Embedded
within this larger feature are several shortwave troughs. These
shortwaves will slowly circulate around each other within the broad
trough through late week. One of these troughs is currently located
over central Nebraska this afternoon. This feature caused the
widespread morning showers and thunderstorms earlier this morning.
Lingering low clouds from this morning`s rainfall has stunted
daytime heating across the region with most remaining cooler than
expected today. These cooler temperatures are likely to limit
afternoon destabilization, which may result in more limited rainfall
through this evening. That being said, with the shortwave off to the
west, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
in an arching band late this afternoon and evening. This band will
lift northeast along with the shortwave trough tonight. While
instability is limited, plentiful near surface vorticity and cold
temperatures aloft may result in an isolated severe thunderstorm.
Additional rainfall amounts are likely to remain below half an inch
for areas that receive additional showers and thunderstorms.
Tomorrow into Friday, the broad trough continues to slowly move
towards the east, but glancing passes from the embedded shortwaves
maintains at least a low chance of showers and thunderstorms each
day, mainly during the afternoon and evening. This activity is
expected to be less widespread with a drier airmass gradually moving
into the region as the area transitions towards the backside of the
system. Instability will be limited through the late week and severe
weather is unlikely at this time. Additional rainfall amounts up to
around a quarter of an inch may be possible for those that see rain.
Otherwise, enjoy the cooler temperatures while they last.
By this weekend and into early next week, drier weather and warming
temperatures dominate the forecast. 80s return to portions of the
region during this time. These temperatures are slightly above
normal for this time of year. Additional rain chances are limited as
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are largely maintained as weak
ridging takes over behind the departing trough. While the broad
pattern favors ridging across our neck of the woods, a weak
disturbance or two may bring at least a low chance of thunderstorms
to portions of the area by late weekend and towards the middle of
next week. As is typical with late summer convection, exact details
are hard to determine and will continue to be monitored as the
forecast draws closer.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
VFR conditions are observed at most terminals this evening aside
from KOFK, where MVFR ceilings may linger for another hour or
so along with scattered showers. More scattered showers may
develop near KOMA this evening, but this activity should stay
away from the terminal. May see fog at KOMA and KLNK after 10z,
so have included BR mentions with reduction to MVFR. Fog will
dissipate after 15z. More scattered shower development is
possible in the afternoon hours, with confidence greater than
50% primarily at KLNK so have included -SHRA mentions after 20z.
Winds will remain light and generally from the south
southeast before gradually turning southwesterly in the late
morning.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion