960 FXUS63 KBIS 070547 AFDBISArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of frost across most of North Dakota through early Sunday morning.
- Dry until the middle of next week, then precipitation chances return.
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.UPDATE... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Quiet weather and clear skies remain over the area. Temperatures have dipped into the lower to mid 30s through many parts of central into parts of western North Dakota, in line with ongoing frost advisory.
UPDATE Issued at 944 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Limited updates needed late this evening. Temperatures remain in the 40s with some lower 50s currently. Overnight lows are still forecast to be in the 30s for most areas. Current Frost Advisory continues to cover areas with the highest confidence for frost tonight into Sunday morning. Otherwise mainly clear skies are being found across the area, with some partly cloudy skies lingering in the northeast. Overall the forecast remains on track.
UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Limited updates needed at this time. Some clouds remain in eastern portions of the state, with clear skies in the west and central. Mainly clear skies tonight will still bring cold temperatures in the 30s. Frost Advisory remains for central and eastern portions. Overall the forecast remains on track.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Currently, high pressure was situated over the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. Diurnally driven cloud cover extends across central and eastern North Dakota with sunny skies west. Temperatures were in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
For tonight, it will be another cool night. However it is not expected to be as cold as this morning. Also, the coldest temperatures will be over eastern ND Sunday morning, with milder temperatures in the west. We will issue a Frost Advisory to cover all but far western North Dakota late tonight through 9 AM CDT or 8 AM MDT Sunday morning.
We start to see a southerly return flow Sunday bringing warmer temperatures Sunday and into next week. Sunday should be a very nice with generally light winds statewide and high in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
The deep Canadian upper trough and resulting northwest flow over the Northern Plains this weekend will transition to an upper level ridge over the central portion of the U.S. by mid week with western U.S. Trough. Temperatures through the week look to remain seasonable to mild. Warmest temperatures (low to mid 80s) will be over southwest North Dakota, with coolest temperatures form the Turtle Mountains into the James River Valley. After tonight, we should be done with and Frost/Freeze highlights for a while. When it comes to precipitation, we begin the work week mostly dry. It`s possible we could see an isolated shower Monday night associated with one last wave moving through the northwest flow. For the most part though, the first half of the work week will be mainly dry. As we go through the second half of the work week, we will see low to medium precipitation chances (20 to 40 percent) as the aforementioned upper ridge gets shunted east and impulses moving through the western U.S. trough lift into the forecast area. The CSU and to a greater extent the NSSL machine learning severe weather probabilities are hinting at an uptick in the severe storm potential in the Wednesday through Friday timeframe. We will certainly need to monitor but it certainly does look to be a more active pattern from mid to late work week and possibly into next weekend.
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.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
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.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ002>005-010>013-018>023-025-033>037-041-042-044>048-050-051.
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UPDATE...JJS DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...JJS
NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion