Sylvan Grove, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

543
FXUS63 KICT 231135
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
635 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong/severe storms may linger into the early morning hours today
  in southern/southeast KS.
- Rain chances diminishing from west to east on Wednesday.
- Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions Thursday through
  Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A shortwave trough over the Rockies is progged to emerge over the
Central Plains today. Ahead of this feature, a complex of showers
and thunderstorms was ongoing over the Central and Southern Plains.
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated during
the morning hours today before the activity gradually shifts
eastward. In the wake of the morning activity, much of the area is
progged to remain weakly capped but we could continue to see some
elevated storms redevelop under the mid/upper trough as we move
through the day. We continue to see anomalous moisture across the
area with PWATs in the 175-200 percent of normal range today before
the column gradually begins to dry out as we move into the overnight
hours. If we see any strong or marginally severe storms this
afternoon they should be confined to far southeast KS where
some modest buoyancy is progged but higher probabilities are
expected to remain further south into eastern OK and AR.
Scattered showers and more isolated storms will linger
overnight into early Wednesday before diminishing from west to
east late in the day.
Thu-Sun...A mid/upper ridge is progged to build eastward into the
central CONUS on Thursday and translate slowly eastward through the
upcoming weekend. This will bring dry and tranquil weather to the
Central Plains through the period with seasonably mild
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Numerous showers and storms early will gradually build eastward
with some renewed development possible as a storm system moves
over the area this afternoon through tonight. Widespread
MVFR/IFR cigs are expected to linger through the TAF period
with IFR/LIFR possible tonight with periodic showers and
storms through the period. Winds will gradually back to a
northerly direction as we move through the day with speeds in
the 10-15 mph range anticipated.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion