Tagus, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

841
FXUS63 KBIS 191733
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1233 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers remain in the forecast today, though by this
  afternoon, the highest chances will have shifted east of
  Highway 83.
- High temperatures will be mainly in the 50s and 60s today
  before warming into the 70s and low 80s by Sunday. Low
  temperatures will be in the 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Most of the fog is gone now as some diurnal heating has raised
temperatures away from the dewpoints. Rain showers continue
in the central and east. They are still forecast to leave the
area this evening. The new NBM has been populated into the
forecast.
UPDATE
Issued at 904 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Widespread fog is now present in the James River Valley and
along the Canadian Border. The fog forecast has been updated to
include the `Areas` wording for those areas. Isolated to
scattered showers continue in the central and east. With cloud
bases of 300ft, some of the lighter showers are hard to see on
radar.
UPDATE
Issued at 553 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Isolated to scattered showers remain present across all but
western North Dakota. In addition, patchy fog is present across
much of the area. Adjusted PoPs a bit to account for the latest
radar trends, otherwise the forecast remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Surface low centered over eastern South Dakota/southwestern
Minnesota will gradually churn northward today through tonight
along the Minnesota and Dakota borders. At which point, it will
begin to lift to the northeast. And even then, it will take
through the remainder of the weekend to fully enter southern
Ontario. This will result in continued scattered showers mainly
for the eastern half of the state through this morning, then the
eastern third this afternoon through Saturday. A few
thunderstorms are possible east as well. Low ceilings, along
with some patchy fog, is present this morning across most of
the state. Skies are expected to clear in western ND later this
morning through the afternoon hours, while fog should dissipate
by this afternoon.
Other than some lingering showers in the James River Valley on
Saturday, mostly dry conditions are expected Saturday through
the next workweek for western through central ND. The exception
remains that some models still bring shortwave energy through
Monday. Deterministically, this timing continues to slow down
and digs south quicker. As a result, NBM mentionable PoPs are
now focused mostly on the far southwest.
Highs today will remain mostly in the 60s before a lowly
amplified ridge passes through this weekend. Along with clearing
skies and surface flow becoming southerly on Sunday, this will
result in a gradual warming trend this weekend. Resulting highs
Saturday will mostly range from the mid 60s to low 70s, and the
70s to low 80s Sunday. Highs for the next workweek will be
near average to slightly above average. Currently, NBM
forecasts are mostly in the 70s with a low 25th/75th percentile
spread. Based on deterministic models, a ridge with questionable
amplification may pass through around midweek. Depending on
timing, duration, and amplification; a day or two could easily
wind up on the higher side of these temperature spreads.
Seasonable to seasonably warm lows in the 40s to low 50s are
also expected through the next workweek.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
IFR CIGs this afternoon. Clouds will break up slightly from west
to central through the period. The rain showers will mostly
stay out of the area except for KJMS. KBIS could see some light
rain this afternoon, before they fully move east. Winds will be
light all period. CIGs in the central and east will stay IFR,
while the far west goes VFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Smith

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion