Tahlequah, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

578
FXUS64 KTSA 101116
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
616 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
- Low shower and thunderstorm chances in northeast Oklahoma and
   far northwest Arkansas today.
- Mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures into
   early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Mid/upper level disturbance sliding over the top of the ridge of
high pressure into the Central Plains, which combined with an
increasing low level jet and continued warm advection were aiding
in convection ongoing across western Kansas. Through the morning
hours Wednesday, these showers and storms are forecast to continue
moving east/southeast within the mean mid level flow toward the
region, though in a weakening trend after sunrise as the low level
jet decreases. Late morning through the afternoon hours, there is
potential for a portion of lingering/redeveloping activity from
the mid/upper level disturbance to spread into parts of northeast
Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas along the northeastern
periphery of the expanding ridge. At this time will add slight
chance PoPs mainly along and north of US Highway 412, while the
greater potential looks to remain just north of the CWA.
With the ridge beginning to expand into the region and southerly
low level flow, afternoon temperatures are expected to be warmer
compared to previous days. High temperatures in the 80s to low 90s
are forecast, and this looks to be coolest day into the first part
of next week.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
An expanding area of low pressure over the Western CONUS will help
to amplify the ridge of high pressure over the Central U.S., with
it oriented from southwest to northeast from the Southern Plains
into the Great Lakes region through the upcoming weekend. The mid
level high pressure center is progged to be over the CWA starting
Thursday and remaining common through Saturday, thus keeping any
precip activity that rounds the top of the ridge from reaching the
CWA. In response, an expanding low/mid level thermal ridge along
with continued generally southerly low level flow will help
temperatures climb back above seasonal average through the weekend.
A warming trend into the weekend with high temperatures in the mid
90s and lows in the 60s/70s are forecast Friday through Sunday. At
the same time, southerly flow looks to help raise dewpoints back
into the mid/upper 60s for much of the CWA, thus increasing
humidity for the weekend as well.
Sunday into next week, latest model solutions begin to differ with
the strength of the ridge as the low pressure system over the
Western CONUS begins to move into the Plains and squeezes the
ridge up against a trof over the East Coast. Energy from the
western low pressure system looks to remain north of the CWA.
However, there remains some potential for an additional wave to
drop southeast into the Plains during the middle part of next week
that may be able to spread precip chances back into the region. At
this time, will continue to keep PoPs in the extended below
mentionable criteria with the amount of uncertainty and low
forecaster confidence. Either way, with the western portion of the
high pressure ridge remaining over the CWA, above seasonal average
temperatures are forecast to continue for the first half of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. A
few high based light showers may move across parts of northeast
Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas this afternoon and evening,
but any rain should remain light.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  66  93  70 /  20  10   0   0
FSM   91  67  95  70 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   89  64  92  68 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   87  63  92  64 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   88  62  91  65 /  20  20  10   0
BYV   88  63  92  65 /  20  20  10   0
MKO   89  63  92  67 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   86  64  90  65 /  20  20  10   0
F10   89  63  92  67 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   87  65  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...05

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion