Taopi, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

804
FXUS63 KARX 240555
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1255 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonable conditions the rest of the week with temps
  generally at/few degrees above normal. Apart from some morning
  fog the next couple days, dry conditions should prevail.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The upper trough that had a hand in yesterday`s severe weather
chances has finally drifted east of our area, putting the region in
weak northerly flow aloft. A weak upper low across the Central
Rockies is starting to get shunted east as a ridge begins to build
across the Pacific Northwest. This is creating a long trough axis
that extends through the Upper Mississippi Valley and into the
southern Ontario with the upper jet well to our north. As the trough
axis begins to pivot counterclockwise into the Ohio River Valley, a
string to weak surface lows will trek across the nations mid
section. Guidance over the last day has trended further south with
the track of these lows, nullifying rain chances across the region.
Even with some weak shortwaves passing overhead in the cyclonic
flow aloft, low level capping and overall issues with moisture
depth should keep all rain chances at bay through the work
week. Weak flow will prevail across the area this weekend with a
weak ridge progressively building in. This looks to keep the
forecast dry through at least early next week.
Temperatures overall will be mild but near normal through the
week with highs generally in the 70s. Friday and Monday look to
be the best chances to cross the 80 degree mark but otherwise
most days should see minor fluctuations in temperatures overall.
Similar to today, we will see chances for fog the next couple of
mornings with dew point depressions less than 4 degrees and overall
moist soils from recent rains. The main limiting factor will be
boundary layer winds being a little stronger than desired which
would increase mixing. Should winds slightly under-perform
current expectations, fog may be a little more widespread. If
fog doesn`t materialize, saturation in the low levels will
likely still lead to low stratus development overnight and into
the morning hours before burning off.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Fog and low stratus remain the primary aviation concern for tonight
and into the morning hours on Wednesday as low-level moisture
remains in places with a building nocturnal inversion. Currently,
deterministic guidance has been backing off on lower vsbys and cigs
considerably in the last few runs. However, given robust
probabilities (50-90%) for MVFR cigs in the recent HREF have kept at
least MVFR mention at KLSE with IFR mention at KRST. MVFR to IFR
cigs and vsbys will linger throughout much of the morning until
diurnal mixing begins to remove any low-level moisture towards
noon. Winds will generally remain light through the TAF period
at under 8 kts.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Barendse
AVIATION...Naylor

NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion