Tazewell, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

795
FXUS64 KMRX 251106
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
706 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 659 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
-  Scattered showers this morning, scattered thunderstorms this
    afternoon into the evening. Flood risk is very low today, and
    a few storms could contain breezy winds.
-  Friday and Saturday are likely to have scattered light rain
    showers. Low rain chances continue into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
As of this writing the upper trough over the Midwest will spend the
next 36 hours moving into the Ohio Valley region of the country and
then pinching off a weak upper low that will slowly meander through
portions of the Eastern US for the next several days. Closer to home
we`re in another major lull of rainfall early this morning. These
periodic lulls have been great to allow for earlier rains to soak in
and drain off before the next round. A few showers will be
dotting the landscape as the sun rises, but the bulk of the rain
for today will hold off until the afternoon. By then solar
insolation will allow for 700 to 1200J MLCAPE, and guidance
indicates 30 to 35 knots of effective shear will be present.
However lapse rates are poor, generally below the 6C/km threshold.
With how yesterday played out in terms of struggling updrafts,
would expect something similar even with more available CAPE to
keep storms sub-severe.
As far as flooding potential, the concerns from early this week have
really diminished as we`ve had several rounds of rains separated by
long lulls. The ground in the region has slowly saturated, but even
the wettest still require a couple inches of rainfall to induce
flood issues, and the HREF PMM doesn`t provide that much rainfall
much anywhere. With scattered convection in the afternoon, it would
require a couple of thunderstorms to drop rain over a vulnerable
location to cause any issues.
Beyond today, light rain will be possible, especially over portions
of northeastern Tennessee into southwestern Virginia on Friday and
Saturday thanks to instability provided by the nearby upper trough.
Flood risk to remain very low. Low chances of diurnal activity to
continue into next week. Temperatures are generally flat through the
period between weak troughing and weak ridging in the Eastern US,
with perhaps a nod towards slightly cooler weather late next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
CHA has been IFR for several hours and is forecast to improve to
at least MVFR in the next hour or two. The other sites have varied
between MVFR and VFR with both categories possible throughout the
rest of the morning. All sites will likely improve back to VFR by
early afternoon. A few showers will continue across the region
through the morning with additional development of showers and
storms expected during the afternoon. Within any shower or storm,
reduction to MVFR or less is possible. This activity should
decrease overnight with chances for fog development at all of the
sites. This was left out of the TAF for the time being.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             81  66  82  64 /  60  30  30  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  79  66  79  63 /  70  50  40  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       78  64  79  62 /  70  40  30  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              77  64  78  61 /  80  40  50  50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion