Teague, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

685
FXUS64 KFWD 212325
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
625 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated severe storms remain possible through this evening
  roughly from the DFW Metroplex northwestward. Large hail and
  damaging winds are the main hazards.
- A cold front will move through North Texas Tuesday evening with
  increasing storm chances. Near normal temperatures will return
  Wednesday through Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Scattered deep convection is underway across much of North Texas
as of 6pm near the confluence of several surface boundaries.
Initial storm mode has largely been supercell clusters in the
presence of moderate instability and more than sufficient
effective bulk shear of 40-50 kts. During the next few hours,
further upscale growth into more linear segments should occur with
these structures continuing to advance southeastward as
northwesterly mid-level flow strengthens overhead. This may
transition the primary threat to wind instead of hail as storms
advance into the I-20 corridor around/after sunset. As the
shortwave ascent responsible for the initial development of these
cells exits the area to the east later tonight, the support for
deep convection will wane, and most thunderstorms should be on a
substantial downward trend from midnight onward.
-Stalley
Previous Discussion:
/This Afternoon through Monday Night/
Visible satellite and radar imagery shows a decaying cluster of
showers and thunderstorms along the Red River with a notable
decrease in intensity observed over the last hour. Outflow from
this convection continues to settle southward into an increasingly
moist and unstable airmass. The main concern for the rest of the
afternoon and evening will be additional convective potential,
including some severe storms during peak afternoon heating.
Water vapor imagery and RAP objective analysis of the 1.5 PVU
surface indicates an embedded shortwave trough spreading through
northwest Oklahoma at this hour. Ascent ahead of this feature is
resulting in an expanding cloud deck across the western part of
Oklahoma and an uptick in convective activity. This feature and
its associated lift should spread southeast into North Texas
through this evening thanks to northwest flow aloft around a mid
level ridge axis. At the surface, a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary lingers north of I-20 and is being sharpened by
convective outflow to the north. Low level moisture convergence
and theta-e advection has really ramped up over the last few hours
along the I-20 corridor from the western parts of the Metroplex
out toward Abilene. Several hours of heating should result in an
increasingly unstable boundary layer by mid afternoon and isolated
thunderstorms should develop as large scale forcing for ascent
spreads in North Texas. The bulk of this activity should develop
near the maxima in surface theta-e advection and moisture
convergence off to the west and northwest of the Metroplex around
21Z. This is supported by the latest NAMNest and nearly all of the
RRFS ensemble members. The HRRR does seem to be most aggressive
with re-developing convection closer to the Red River and
spreading it south into the Metroplex late this evening, however,
that area is pretty worked over from morning convection and
currently resides within a minimum in instability. We`ll have the
highest PoPs for the rest of this afternoon and evening across our
western and northwest counties with activity diminishing in
coverage and intensity after sunset.
Deep layer shear will increase through the day ahead of the
approaching upper disturbance and combined with modest afternoon
instability, will support a localized severe weather threat
including isolated supercells with large hail. Relatively high
cloud bases would also suggest a wind threat with any organized
convection. Mid level ridging and a more westerly flow aloft should
have more influence across the region on Monday with storm
chances generally less than 10% across the area. Temperatures will
continue 8-10 degrees above normal through Tuesday.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/
/Tuesday through Saturday/
A broad central CONUS trough will continue to amplify on Tuesday
with a shortwave swinging into the Southern Plains during the
day. This will help send a cold front southward through North
Texas late in the day. Showers and thunderstorms will develop
along the front during the late afternoon and spread southeast
through the late evening hours with some potential for a few
strong storms. The main forcing for ascent will begin to pull off
to the east by late Tuesday evening, but a secondary upstream
trough will dig into the Plains on Wednesday. This will
effectively push the frontal boundary into Deep South Texas and
send cooler and drier air into our area. While not a significantly
colder push of area, temperatures will fall back closer to
seasonal norms Wednesday through Saturday with little chance for
additional rainfall into next weekend.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/
Thunderstorm activity is underway just northwest of the D10 TAF
sites as of 23z. While some weakening has been observed with this
convection in the past ~30 minutes, these storms will still be
able to advance southeastward into the TAF sites within the next
couple of hours, possibly accompanied by a NNW wind shift due to
outflow. At least a few hours of impacts due to nearby TSRA can
be expected through about 02-03z. These storms should take on a
fairly quick weakening/dissipation trend by 06z, with dry weather
through the remainder of the TAF period. Following any
interruption of southerly flow this evening, a south wind will
resume heading into Monday morning at speeds of 10-15 kts and
some daytime gusts around 25 kts. Sky cover tomorrow will consist
of a few daytime cumulus at 5-6 kft along with scattered cirrus.
There is a small chance for a morning stratus intrusion at Waco,
although this potential is too low to include in the TAF, and
these cigs more than likely will remain south of the airfield.
-Stalley
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  94  76  95  73 /  30   5   5  30  70
Waco                74  94  75  95  74 /  10   5   0  10  60
Paris               71  92  72  93  71 /  30  10  10  40  80
Denton              72  94  75  95  69 /  40   5  10  40  70
McKinney            73  94  75  94  71 /  30   5  10  30  70
Dallas              74  96  76  97  74 /  30   5   5  30  70
Terrell             72  93  73  93  72 /  20   5   5  20  70
Corsicana           74  94  75  95  74 /  10   5   0  10  60
Temple              72  94  73  95  73 /  10   5   0  10  50
Mineral Wells       71  97  73  96  69 /  40   5   5  30  60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ091>093-100>104-115>119-129.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion