Thomasville, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

258
FXUS62 KTAE 211733
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
133 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Surface high pressure will be extending further south from the
northeast. Dry air will continue to filter into the region today
and tomorrow along with light easterly flow. The atmosphere will
be stable for most of the region however, our western most
counties might have just enough instability to squeeze out a
shower or thunderstorm this afternoon/evening before sunset with
PoPs around 20-30 percent for the AL wiregrass and FL Panhandle.
PoPs chances decrease for Monday as mid-level ridging and the
surface high is overhead. Overnight tonight, there is a chance for
patchy fog to develop near the I-75 corridor. Temperatures today
and Monday will be in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in
the upper 60s to around 70 degrees along the immediate coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Status quo for the start of the short term with the surface high
keeping the region warm and dry for several days. There will be
another chance for fog development along and near I-75 on Tuesday
morning before dry air filters in again from the east/northeast.
There will be an upper level trough over the region but, any
factors that could contribute to shower/thunderstorm development
will remain south and east of the area. Our next best chance for
rain approaches with a cold front late Thursday into Friday. The
cold front will be ahead of an upper level trough covering the
eastern third of the CONUS. The front will bring temperatures down
to the mid and upper 80s late in the work week with overnight
lows falling to the low and mid 60s. The expected rain will be
beneficial, however not expecting to be much in accumulation. It
appears to be half an inch to 1 inch of rainfall through the
event; not enough to have any real impact on the onset of drought
conditions in the area. Following this frontal system, dry
conditions appear to return for the end of the weekend heading
into the next work week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours. An isolated TSRA or
two is possible this afternoon near ECP where Cu development is
noted. A PROB30 group was introduced for this possibility in this
cycle. TSRA looks to stay west of DHN based on latest model
guidance. Some MVFR fog is possible near VLD early Monday morning
and have included a TEMPO for this possibility.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Winds are easterly today as high pressure shifts eastward over
the Appalachians. Winds for the most part will remain light to
gentle, though some moderate easterly surges are possible, mainly
tonight and again on Monday night. Seas will remain around 1 to 2
feet. Winds become more southerly to southwesterly ahead of an
approaching cold front late in the upcoming week with an increased
chance for scattered showers and storms. Despite the approaching
front later this week, winds and seas should likely remain below
cautionary levels.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
High pressure at the surface will hold over the region for the
next few days. Dry conditions are expected for the next several
days with warm temperatures in the 90s. Minimum relative humidity
values will be in the mid-30s increasing to the mid-40s as we
start the work week. Transport winds will be light around 5-10 mph
from the east. Along the Emerald coast, the winds will shift
southerly during the afternoon hours, however the sea breeze is
not expected to affect the more inland districts. Dispersions for
the period will be high on Sunday (today) for areas along the I-75
corridor. Fair to Moderate dispersions are expected for Monday &
Tuesday. High dispersions will be possible for the Alabama
wiregrass on Wednesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Any rainfall that falls over the next 5 days will be very
isolated and rather light. Mid to late next week, better rain
chances return, but rain amounts vary significantly. Regardless,
at this point it doesn`t appear that this will be a drought-
busting rain event with most likely totals being around 0.25 to
0.75 inches. The high end rainfall totals are around 1-1.25
inches, which is still not quite enough to alleviate the drought.
And there`s a low-end possibility that we miss most of the rain
with the 10th percentile rainfall around a tenth of an inch.
Given the very hot temperatures, lower humidity, and general lack
of appreciable rainfall, drought conditions continue to worsen
across the area, in some cases, rapidly. Until a good soaking rain
occurs, drought conditions will keep worsening as we enter our
driest months climatologically.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   70  91  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
Panama City   72  90  72  90 /   0  10   0  10
Dothan        68  92  68  93 /   0  10   0   0
Albany        68  92  68  93 /   0  10   0   0
Valdosta      68  89  69  93 /   0  20   0  10
Cross City    68  91  70  93 /   0  20  10  30
Apalachicola  74  85  72  87 /   0  10  10  10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion