Thompsontown, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

154
FXUS61 KCTP 101855
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
255 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* A mainly dry and seasonable weather pattern is expected to
  continue for much of the next 8 days
* The exception may be when light showers may fall over the
  northern half of PA Sat night-Sun night as a front
  nears/passes
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low clouds in the SE seem like they will be re-established as we
stratify and weak NNE flow keeps some moisture incoming.
Everyone else will be clear and calm overnight.  Dewpoints and
expected mins are a little higher overnight, but the normal nrn
valley fog will happen again.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure continues to rule. We have very little reason to
deviate from the forecast of excellent (albeit very dry) weather
served up by the NBM. What is left of the morning clouds over
the SE will slink away to the S and dissipate. Only isold/sct cu
will pop up over the Alleghenies Thursday.
Friday and Saturday look a deg or two warmer, pushing us up to
5-10F warmer than normal across the board. RH will dip to the
30s and perhaps U20s each aftn. Without appreciable wind, there
is no worry for red flag conditions. But, the recent departures
from normal precip have resulted in a return to D1 drought
conditions for the Alleghenies.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A northern stream front will push in from the Upper Great Lakes
for the second half of the weekend. The system is starved of
moisture and will only get drier as it hits PA and our parched
ground. Expect only sct SHRA from Sat night into late Sunday or
Sunday night. QPF is just about as low as you would think in
this pattern. Very few pixels of >0.10" to be seen on any models
or ensemble mean solutions. The front slows as it gets just to
the coast and a low pressure center may hang out near NJ. That
might try to throw a shower back into ern PA, but that is not
worth a 15 PoP for Monday. Dry thereafter as another sprawling
high pressure area slides in from the N/W.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Marine moisture in the SE has thinned out with VFR everywhere at
1830Z. However, with stabilization and weak NNE flow below
FL030, there should be a re-establishment of lower clouds for
LNS and MDT tonight. Probability of 

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion