Three Creek, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

331
FXUS65 KBOI 140907
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
307 AM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...Clouds have
increased this morning ahead of a negatively tilted trough
moving across the region from southwest to northeast. Showers
and thunderstorms along the cold front will reach southeast
Oregon just before sunrise around 6 AM MDT, then progress east-
northeast through the dayarriving at the IdahoOregon border
around 1 PM MDT, the Treasure Valley around 2 PM MDT, and
McCall/Banner Summit near 3 PM MDT. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected behind the front across Baker County
and the west-central Idaho mountains as the low center tracks
just north of the area. Recent CAM guidance has shifted the best
thunderstorm potential farther north, generally along and north
of a RomeBoiseBanner Summit line.
Convective parameters remain favorable for a few stronger
storms, with bulk shear near 30 kts and MUCAPE values around 500
J/kg. Hazards include gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph, small
hail, and heavy rainfall. Precipitable water values are near the
85th percentile, and hourly rainfall rates could reach 0.5
inches with the strongest storms, posing a localized flash flood
risk near burn scars.
An upper-level ridge builds into the region Monday, though
temperatures will remain about 10 degrees below normal.
Temperatures moderate back to near normal Tuesday as the ridge
axis shifts east.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...The upper-level ridge
will hold over the area through at least Thursday, keeping
mostly sunny skies and near-normal temperatures in place. Highs
will warm to around 5 degrees above normal by Thursday. By
Friday, a more complex synoptic pattern develops with a trough
axis setting up along the West Coast and possibly two closed
lows on either side of our area. Model solutions vary on their
exact placement, but the general outcome points to cooler
conditions with more cloud cover and a slight chance of showers
Friday into Saturday. Temperatures will trend back toward normal
by late week and into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving W to E
starting later this morning and lasting through this evening.
Storms capable of MVFR/IFR conditions, mountain obscuration,
gusty outflow winds up to 45 kt, small hail, and heavy rain.
Otherwise, VFR. Smoke layers aloft, improving Sunday. Surface
winds SE-SW 5-15 kt in the morning, becoming W-NW 10- 20 kt in
the afternoon and evening. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10- 25
kt.
KBOI...VFR and smoke layers aloft. Surface winds: SE 5-15 kt
overnight, becoming NW 10-15 kt gusts to 20-25 kt after Sun/17Z with
cold front. A 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms this afternoon.
Outflows from distant storms may travel to KBOI in the
afternoon. Blowing dust and gusts to 25-40 kt with outflows.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
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SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion