Thurston, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

462
FXUS63 KOAX 140751
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
251 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered storms develop in the area this afternoon, and
  additional scattered storms move across the area overnight. A
  few of the strongest may produce isolated damaging wind gusts
  and hail up to the size of quarters.
- Additional rounds of showers and storms are expected through
  the week. A few strong storms are possible Tuesday afternoon,
  with pockets of heavy rain at times through the end of the
  week.
- Temperatures remain warmer than normal through Tuesday, but
  highs return to the mid 70s for Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
A wide angle look at the weather pattern early this Sunday
morning shows an elongated multi-part trough axis extending
poleward from New Mexico through eastern Montana. Embedded
within that trough are areas of focused mid/upper circulation
over central Colorado and northeast Montana, as well as a jet
streak wrapping northeast toward western Kansas, and more
subtle lead short wave vort maxima lifting across western
Nebraska and western Kansas. Farther east, a narrow, amplified
ridge axis extended from Louisiana through Minnesota. This
ridge- trough interface is notable in its short wavelength but
rather amplified appearance. At the surface, a rather broad
region of decent gulf moisture and dewpoints at least in the mid
60s extended all the way into North Dakota. There was quite a
bit of precipitation across the western half of Nebraska into
South Dakota and northwest Kansas, associated with the lead
waves. This forcing for ascent is lifting almost due north, and
is expected to continue on its poleward track given the sharp
ridge axis just to the east.
As the day progresses, expect the central Colorado vort max to
lift northeast toward central Nebraska. Also expect the jet
streak and plume of drier mid level air (and steeper mid level
lapse rates) to cross KS into south central Nebraska by late
day. Anticipate effective heating through early afternoon in
eastern parts of the forecast area, dampened a bit by clouds
farther west. This should be sufficient to develop weak to
moderate mixed layer CAPE, with one axis of slightly higher
values oriented near and east of Highway 77, and another with
the plume of steeper lapse rates coming into south central NE.
There is a fairly consistent signal in CAM and larger scale
models for a zone of weak boundary layer convergence to develop
in the vicinity of that eastern instability axis in the
vicinity of a Bloomfield to Norfolk to Lincoln line. Storms that
develop in this area around mid afternoon could develop healthy
updrafts in the first couple hours after development. Wind
profiles are a bit ugly, largely unidirectional from south to
north, but perhaps with enough speed shear to support some
supercell structure at times in the strongest cells. In the
strongest cells, anticipate damaging downburst winds and
marginally severe hail to be the primary storm hazards, with a
non-zero chance for a localized wind gust greater than 70 mph.
Then farther west, expect a separate area of organized multicell
storms, possibly with embedded supercell storm types at times,
to develop near the upper circulation in south central NE. These
will move northeast, and while they may be strong, expect a
weakening trend as they move into eastern Nebraska after dark.
Getting into evening and overnight, some scattered storms will
persist, but the overall trend in intensity and coverage should
be on the downhill trend with the system. Still have some
pockets of 60% chances for TS overnight. A few showers may
linger into Monday morning, and then could even see a few storms
late Monday as the trough continues to drift over with a weakly
capped or uncapped environment.
As we get into Tuesday, a regeneration of the longer wave trough
to our northwest will track east and interact with a cold
frontal zone. That front will drop across the forecast area
Tuesday night, but the overall upper trough will consist of
multiple parts and will be very slow to progress eastward, so
will see multiple periods of rain and thunderstorm chances all
the way into Friday. Will every day be rainy at your location?
Probably not. But do expect scattered rain in the region pretty
much every day of next week. Tuesday may be the best chance for
a few strong to severe storms, but the shear profile is quite
weak and unimpressive. Temperatures will cool back into the 70s
for highs after the front moves through for Wednesday through
the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period at all three
terminals. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to kick off
along a boundary to the west of KOFK and KLNK after 18Z. There
may be a couple of waves of storms moving through the area
between 18Z and 06Z. The best timeframe for storms will be
between 21Z and 06Z. Just outside of the TAF period, storms
should clear out of the KOFK and KLNK areas. A 20% chance of
storms will linger at KOMA, diminishing by sunrise.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion