Tilmon, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

455
FXUS64 KEWX 101850
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
150 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures to continue to follow close to normals for
  September.
- Slow return of low level moisture brings a gradual warming
  trend on minimum temperatures.
- Little or no rain expected through Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY)...
High pressure aloft remains dominant over most of TX in the
short range and beyond with today`s ridge centers located over
NE TX at the H7 level and over the Permian Basin at the H5
level. This will maintain a N or NE wind in the mid levels to
promote a continued dry air influx for most layers. At the
surface light onshore SE winds will transport higher dew points
into Central TX through Thursday with decoupled winds at night
not expected to contribute much to moisture transport. Better
onshore winds today over Tuesday means that Thursday`s daytime
RH values will get about a 5 to 10 percent bump over those seen
this afternoon, and that Thursday morning lows will bump up 2 to
5 degrees over this morning`s lows for most areas. Good daytime
mixing will also bake out some of the low level moisture
leaving afternoon changes RH and max temperatures after Thursday
to being quite small. The morning low trends for Thursday
through Friday morning will continue to climb by 1 to 3 degrees.
With the influx of higher dewpoints over southern parts of the
area going forward, the potential increases for a stray shower
or storm over parts of the lower Coastal Prairies Thursday
afternoon, and potentially into the Rio Grande plains as well
for Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
Over the weekend, high pressure aloft over TX will keep the area
mostly dry. The H5 layer of the ridging pivots eastward to
align more with the H7 and H3 axes over East TX while falling
heights over the western CONUS increases monsoon activity over
West TX.
While no sensible weather changes can be signaled for the
weekend, there could be a developing trend toward further
destabilization from the west as we go into early next week.
There is a high (70 percent) chance that a disturbance just
offshore near the south Mexico coast develops into a cyclone
and is forecast by the NHC to track parallel to the coast or WNW
over the next several days. This could lead to more unstable
model depictions over our western counties by the middle of next
week. The current deterministic runs hold to continued ridge
dominance mostly, but do allow for a slight chance of diurnal
convection for most areas by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
VFR flying conditions are forecast to continue for the period
with few to sct clouds at times for locations around San Antonio
and points westward while mostly to completely clear skies
occur elsewhere. The winds will remain of around 5 to 10 kts
during the day from the east-southeast while speeds diminish at
night with light and variable conditions overnight through early
morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  96  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  96  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     67  96  70  96 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            67  92  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  94  73  93 /   0   0   0  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        67  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             67  95  70  95 /   0   0   0  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        67  97  69  97 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   68  95  69  96 /   0  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       70  95  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           71  97  73  97 /   0   0   0  20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...18
AVIATION...62

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion