Timken, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

276
FXUS63 KDDC 210002
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
702 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms near the
  Oklahoma border late day and early this evening. The main
  risk for a few of these storms will be wind gusts up to 60 mph
  and isolated hail
- A warm start to the work week will give way to another round
  of cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Accumulating rainfall possible from Monday night through
  Wednesday as an upper level trough/low crosses the Central
  Plains. Moderate confidence exists that a few of these storms
  may also be severe but at this time exact location of where
  these stronger storms will occur is low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Earlier today, one subtle upper level wave was located over far
western Kansas with some weakening thunderstorms occurring ahead
of this system as of noon across portions of west central
Kansas. Another, more significant, upper level trough was
located over Wyoming. Both of these upper level systems will
produce an opportunity for thunderstorms across southwest Kansas
over the next 24 hours.
Our first subtle upper level wave will propagate eastward
this afternoon encountering improving instability north of a
surface boundary across southwest Kansas near the Oklahoma
border. This setup offers a 20-30% chance for scattered
afternoon/evening thunderstorms. While shear remains weak...steep
low level lapse rates and forecast downdraft cape suggest any
storm that does develop could produce gusty winds. Isolated wind
gusts up to 60 mph are possible near the Oklahoma border which
is why the storm prediction center has a marginal risk for late
today/early this evening for this area (level 1 of 5). A
secondary risk late today will be isolated hail.
As these storms diminish towards sunset, attention shifts to a
more significant upper level trough approaching north central
and west central Kansas after sunset from Wyoming. Ahead of this
trough, improved moisture transport and decreasing CIN,
combined with warm air advection and mid level moisture will
support a better chance (30-50%) for scattered overnight
thunderstorms. Although widespread severe weather confidence is
low, a few stronger storms could produce small hail and
localized heavy rainfall.
A brief break in wet weather is expected Sunday night and
Monday as a shortwave ridge moves through the Western High
Plains. A brief warmup can also be expected for southwest Kansas
on Monday, with gusty south winds developing as pressures fall
east of the Rockies in response to our next approaching upper
level trough. Highs will mainly be in the mid 80s but there is a
50-80% chance of upper 80s for a few locations in southwest
Kansas. These warm temperatures will be short lived as our next
cold front and upper level trough is forecast to move across
western Kansas Monday night through Tuesday. This will bring our
next shot of cooler air to southwest Kansas. Highs on Tuesday
and Wednesday will be in the 70s and for parts of southwest
Kansas may be optimistic due to expected cloud cover and
rainfall. There is a 30-50% chance of highs below 70 degrees
will be possible west of Highway 283.
In addition to these cooler temperatures, thunderstorm chances
will be on the increase as the cold front and upper level trough
cross the Central Plains Monday night and Tuesday. Widespread
accumulating rainfall is possible with this system as it passes.
There will also be improving chances for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms due to enhancing shear and instability as the
500mb trough/low as it crosses western Kansas. Confidence in
the chance that a few these storms may be severe is moderate
(40-60%), with lower confidence in specific locations for the
stronger thunderstorms(20-30%).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A weak upper level disturbance combined with plentiful moisture
will result in the development of showers after 03z. Weak
easterly upslope winds and rain cooled air will result in low
CIGS to IFR/LIFR by 10-12z, especially at KGCK and KDDC. With
daytime heating, expect CIGS to gradually improve by 15-16z.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Finch

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion