Timken, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

223
FXUS63 KDDC 291003
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
503 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy winds return this afternoon
- Dry and warm conditions through the workweek
- Small probability (10-20%) of rain in the later part of the weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
07Z upper air analysis shows a large anticyclone centered near the
Great Lakes with a large ridge over the eastern CONUS and a nearly
stationary open wave trough approaching the four corners region.  At
the surface a weak lee side trough is located in eastern Colorado
with a strong high pressure centered in southern Illinois.
Today as the upper trough enters into Colorado and New Mexico more
upper level Pacific moisture will stream into western Kansas through
the day and we should see a thicker mid and high level cloud deck.
850 mb temperatures should be 1-3 (C) cooler than Sunday and with
more south to southeasterly winds highs will reach into the lower to
mid 80s.  With the upper level shortwave moving over the Rockies the
lee side trough should intensify in the afternoon leading to stronger
winds at 15-25 mph with occasional higher gusts.
For the middle of the week model trends have the upper level trough
moving into the central plains but with the lack of substantial
moisture from the Gulf or Pacific the most we should see is mid and
higher level clouds.  Model ensemble forecasts for precipitation are
almost 0% through at least Saturday.  The upper air pattern shifts
to more of a ridge by the end of the workweek and the warmest
temperatures look to be by Friday where highs are in the the upper
80s to lower 90s.
Long term ensemble clusters show a trough digging into the Rockies
by Saturday and into the plains on Sunday.  This should bring a cold
front through during the day on Saturday and some ensemble members
are starting to hint at some QPF by Sunday.  This is the first
signal for rain we are seeing at least in the next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 503 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Mid and high level clouds will overspread southwest Kansas
through the day on Tuesday but we should have VFR flight
category for all terminals during the time period. Winds will
increase after 15Z and we will have wind speeds around 12-20 kts
in the afternoon with occasional gusts of 25 kts. Winds should
relax after 01Z.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion