Timnath, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

596
FXUS65 KBOU 102107
AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
307 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms the
  next few days. Better chances for rainfall by Friday or Saturday.
- Warm weather continues all week, with 90F possible today and
  Thursday. Slightly cooler temperatures this weekend into next
  week.
&&
.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 243 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
It`s a warm one out there this afternoon. Temperatures across most
of the Denver metro have made it into the upper 80s to low 90s.
DEN recently hit 90F, and we`ve also seen that number at Central
Park (90F), and the Arsenal RAWS (92F), and KBKF/KCFO/KBJC along
with numerous unofficial stations. With another hour or two of
potential warming, we`ll see if we manage another degree or two of
warming across the metro. Meanwhile, a few weak showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible through the rest of
the afternoon, though given the dry airmass and meager
instability, coverage of storms should be limited.
The forecast through the rest of the work week should be
relatively straightforward, as a large upper trough axis drifts
from the intermountain northwest into the northern Rockies.
Southwesterly flow aloft will gradually increase with better
moisture also slowly streaming into the region. Most guidance
keeps the better moisture across southwestern Colorado, and it`s
no surprise the better PoPs/QPF are across our mountains and west
into the GJT forecast area. A few stronger storms are possible
tomorrow with some overlap of deep layer shear and MLCAPE... but
the potential for widespread/organized severe weather looks low.
As the trough eventually lifts northeastward, we should see at
least one or two shortwaves round the base of the trough and track
across Colorado. There`s still a decent amount of spread across
guidance, with the GFS/GEFS on the faster side and the various
ECMWF products a touch slower. Whether Friday or Saturday would be
the favored day for rain across the lower elevations is still up
in the air, but there is still broad agreement that we`ll manage
one day of decent (>40%) chances of rain for the Denver metro. The
trough passage should also in some slightly cooler temperatures,
although "cooler" in the case will just mean "near normal" with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Model solutions slowly begin to diverge as we get into next week,
with less consistency handling a fairly complex upper level
pattern. There`s broad agreement for a brief warmup to start next
week, but details beyond that are much more hazy.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR through the TAF period. Main concern is a period of isolated
to scattered convection this afternoon. Variable, gusty outflow
winds would be the main hazard in the typical mid/late afternoon
time period. Overall convective coverage looks less than
yesterday. Winds this afternoon should turn slowly to the east or
southeast with generally light speeds.
There may be a brief period of enhanced drainage winds this
evening, especially if these can be aided by decaying showers
south of the terminals. Drainage should persist overnight. A
little less confidence in the wind by late tomorrow morning.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hiris
AVIATION...Hiris

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion