Tocito, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

121
FXUS65 KABQ 102038
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
238 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
- Widespread storms likely Wednesday through Friday, with the
  highest rainfall expected in the northwest. Strong to severe
  storms may produce gusty outflow winds and large hail each
  afternoon and evening. There will be a low risk of flash
  flooding in western and northern areas as well.
- Drier weather across western and central New Mexico Saturday
  with scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage along and east
  of the central mountain chain. Some storms may become severe in
  eastern New Mexico on Saturday afternoon.
- After a brief break in storms Sunday, forecast confidence is
  increasing that rain chances will return to the region early
  next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Moist instability (as evidenced by morning altocumulus) has allowed
for the quick development of scattered showers and storms over the
western high terrain early this afternoon, with another crop of
storms focusing along the central mountain chain. An early season
trough is currently spinning over northern CA and will continue
digging southeastward today. This has resulted in increased shear
over northwestern NM where 25-35kts of bulk shear over the Four
Corners could support the development of fast-moving strong to
severe storms. Mid-level lapse are impressive again (around 8C/km on
the 18Z sounding at KABQ) so storms will not struggle to grow tall
enough to produce small hail. The limiting factor with regard to
storm strength today will be the dry air aloft. Shear could help to
mitigate some of these concerns in the northwest, but less so in
central New Mexico.
Storms over the south-central mountains will be slower-moving closer
to the center of the H5 high. Models have been consistently keeping
storms off the sensitive Ruidoso are burn scars, but re-developing
showers could easily move over the scars later today, with the
greatest concern over the Salt scar. Storms will likely persist into
the late evening hours again tonight, with the highest confidence in
central NM along and just east of the Rio Grande Valley and in the
far northwest corner of the state.
A moisture plume will tighten up over western NM on Thursday as the
aformentioned trough continues its trek southeastward. Divergence
aloft will be the driver of precipitation, but pockets of
instability will help to create localized heavier rainfall rates in
western and central NM. Given strong speed shear, a few supercells
may develop west of the Rio Grande Valley and produce damaging wind
gusts. Instability may be slightly lower than today, but areas on
the fringes of the main moisture plume should destabilize quite well
when temps warm in the afternoon. It should be drier in eastern NM
thanks to dry air advection from the south, but there could be a few
pop-up showers over the high terrain of the central mountain chain
in the early afternoon hours. Given the synoptic-scale forcing,
storms will most likely persist into the late evening and overnight
hours in at least the northwest third of the state on Thursday
afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Friday will be another active day as an early season trough
continues its journey into the desert southwest. The lack of
instability should limit storm height, but efficient rainfall rates
given the high PWAT environment and large scale forcing from the
approaching trough will support rainfall rates up to 1.5" at times.
Most of this rainfall will be beneficial considering that western NM
has been very dry this winter, but the parched soil will likely
struggle to absorb all this runoff, likely leading to localized
flash flood concerns. Training will be required for significant
impacts to occur given the fast storm motion (25-35kts) so that will
be something to watch closely as we move closer. SPC has introduced
a Marginal risk of severe storms for Friday afternoon in
northwestern NM given the strong shear (40-50kts). Speed shear is
quite strong, but the positive tilt of the approaching trough means
directional shear will be lacking and would increase the threat of
any supercells developing. Model guidance has been hinting at storms
clustering together Friday evening and moving eastward along a
Pacific front. Increasingly strong jet dynamics will play a strong
role in storm persistence (or dissipation) so the exact track of the
upper-low will be another factor to watch closely. The EPS and GEFS
have had strong disagreement over the storm track, but have begun to
fall into better agreement within the past 24 hours with the EPS
moving the upper-low faster and the GEFS moving the upper-low more
slowly.
The region will dry out from west to east on Saturday, with
potential strong to severe storms in eastern NM where ample moisture
will interact with the exiting trough. It still looks like there
will be a break in the action Sunday before moisture returns early
next week. There is high uncertainty with regard to the upper-level
pattern from Monday onward so forecast confidence remains low.
Around half of GEFS and GEPS members are showing another anomalously
deep trough over The Great Basin early next week, which would act to
quickly draw another slug of mid-level moisture northward into New
Mexico. However, the majority of models (around 70%) are showing a
weak trough or quasi-zonal flow would would result in moisture
slowly returning to New Mexico early to mid-next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
A few lingering showers will continue through mid morning on the
caprock, including KCVN and KCVS. Shower and thunderstorm
coverage tomorrow afternoon and evening will favor far western NM,
north central NM, and the central mountain chain and adjacent
lower elevations. Included PROB30s at KFMN, KGUP, KAEG, KSAF,
KLVS, and KTCC to account for gusty winds from this activity.
Shower and thunderstorm activity slowly tapers off after sunset
with storms lingering longest and persisting across northwest and
far north central NM, including KFMN. BKN to OVC mid level clouds
lingering overnight across western, central and northern NM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7
days. Widespread showers and storms are likely each afternoon
through Saturday, with the greatest coverage in western and
northern New Mexico. Widespread wetting rainfall is likely and multi-
day rainfall totals will likely exceed 1" in the Tusas and Jemez
mountains where the heaviest and most persistent rainfall is
forecast. Breezy southerly winds will prevail the area today through
Friday as an upper-level trough approaches, but fast-moving storms
(from the south to north) will help to mix stronger winds down to
the surface. A few storms may become severe each day through Friday
in central and western NM and in eastern NM on Saturday. After a
brief break in storms on Sunday. moisture looks to return on Monday
and Tuesday (moderate confidence).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  60  84  59  76 /  50  60  60  80
Dulce...........................  46  78  47  71 /  50  60  60  80
Cuba............................  54  81  53  76 /  30  40  40  70
Gallup..........................  51  82  52  77 /  20  40  30  60
El Morro........................  53  79  52  75 /  30  40  40  80
Grants..........................  53  83  53  79 /  30  40  40  80
Quemado.........................  53  81  53  79 /  20  30  20  50
Magdalena.......................  60  83  59  80 /  10  10  10  40
Datil...........................  53  79  53  77 /  10  20  10  50
Reserve.........................  53  87  53  84 /  10  20  10  40
Glenwood........................  59  90  58  87 /  10  20  10  40
Chama...........................  47  73  46  68 /  40  40  50  80
Los Alamos......................  58  79  57  76 /  20  20  20  50
Pecos...........................  54  81  52  78 /  20  20  20  30
Cerro/Questa....................  52  79  51  75 /  20  20  20  40
Red River.......................  45  69  44  67 /  20  20  20  40
Angel Fire......................  40  74  39  72 /  20  30  20  30
Taos............................  51  82  50  79 /  20  20  20  30
Mora............................  50  77  47  74 /  20  30  20  30
Espanola........................  56  87  55  84 /  20  20  20  40
Santa Fe........................  59  82  57  78 /  20  20  20  30
Santa Fe Airport................  56  85  56  82 /  20  20  20  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  66  88  65  86 /  20  10  10  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  63  90  63  88 /  20  10  10  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  92  63  90 /  20  10  10  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  90  64  88 /  20  20  10  30
Belen...........................  59  92  59  90 /  10  10   5  20
Bernalillo......................  62  92  62  89 /  20  20  10  30
Bosque Farms....................  59  91  60  89 /  20  10  10  30
Corrales........................  63  92  63  90 /  20  20  10  30
Los Lunas.......................  60  91  60  89 /  10  10  10  30
Placitas........................  61  87  61  84 /  20  20  10  30
Rio Rancho......................  63  91  62  88 /  20  20  10  40
Socorro.........................  63  93  62  91 /  10  10   5  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  83  56  80 /  20  20  10  40
Tijeras.........................  59  84  58  81 /  20  20  10  30
Edgewood........................  53  85  52  82 /  20  20  10  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  86  50  83 /  20  20   5  20
Clines Corners..................  55  80  53  78 /  20  20   5  10
Mountainair.....................  56  84  55  82 /  20  10   5  20
Gran Quivira....................  56  83  54  82 /  20  20   0  20
Carrizozo.......................  60  86  59  85 /  20  20   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  55  79  53  78 /  20  20   0  10
Capulin.........................  54  80  53  78 /  20  10  10   5
Raton...........................  51  84  51  81 /  20  20  10  10
Springer........................  52  86  52  83 /  20  20  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  52  80  51  78 /  20  30  10  20
Clayton.........................  62  88  60  85 /  20   0   0   0
Roy.............................  57  84  56  81 /  20  10  10   0
Conchas.........................  61  90  61  88 /  20   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  58  87  57  84 /  20  10   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  60  89  59  86 /  10   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  60  92  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  60  92  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  60  90  60  88 /  10   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  62  93  62  91 /  10   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  56  88  55  87 /  20  10   0   0
Elk.............................  55  86  53  85 /  10  10   0   5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion