Tocsin, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

359
FXUS63 KIWX 091907
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
307 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and low 80s will climb
  into the mid-upper 80s by Friday, possibly persisting through
  the weekend.
- Dry with variable cloud cover through the work week. There are
  low chances (20 percent) for rain showers Sat night into
  Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Upper level ridging will build into the region, but it will face
some challenges which may limit its eastward progress. The
first challenge is with trough set to move through the region
over the next 24 to 36 hours. While some showers and storms were
present in southern MN, all signs have been for this to weaken
with time as it runs into a much drier airmass with the best
influx of low level moisture remaining to our west. Have
continued with an increase in clouds but no precip.
In the wake of the trough, the ridge will attempt to build north and
take hold, but faces a battle with 2 more northern stream waves. The
initial wave is quite weak and simply bounces off the ridge with the
model blend backing off on the previous slgt chc pops late Fri night
into Sat. A deeper trough dives out of the James Bay area towards
the SE Sat night into Sunday. Models have backed off on a closed low
with a more progressive trough reaching Lakes Erie and Ontario by 6Z
Sun as well as eventual phasing of the energy with the first trough
set to impact the near term. Final solutions are all over the place
on the location of the deepening low and possible impacts to the
area. This shift has resulted in any pops now confined to 00Z Sun
through 00Z Mon.
Outside of the impacts of these waves, high temperatures in the 80s
will be common and if the GFS (more radical) solution verifies
possibly into the 90s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
A dry and stable air mass will continue to promote VFR
conditions and light winds through the TAF cycle. High clouds
will be on the increase into tonight as a weak upper level
trough moves into the area.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Steinwedel

NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion