Tolani, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

739
FXUS65 KFGZ 271912
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1212 PM MST Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue over the region through Sunday. Some stronger storms may
contain large hail, damaging winds, and very heavy rainfall, which
could lead to flash flooding. Conditions dry out by early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Today...An upper-level low remains situated near
Yuma this morning. Sub-tropical moisture continues to be advected
northward as a result, with another round of showers and thunderstorms
consequently expected today. Some areas of showers have already
develop earlier this morning across Yavapai County, with this
activity expected to spread northward. 12Z HREF guidance looks to
largely favor Coconino County later this afternoon, given the
better instability from less cloud cover this morning. Latest
guidance from the U of Arizona WRF does seems to keep convection
going into the overnight, with additional storm coverage moves
northward out of the Lower Deserts.
With the abundant moisture in place, rainfall rates will be fairly
heavy in the stronger storms, however storm speeds around 15-20 kts
will limit the residency time. Thus, mainly localized flash flooding
is expected, especially over burn scars, slot canyons, and in urban
areas. With the added dynamics of the low nearby, 0-6 km shear is
around 20-30 kts, thus a few strong to severe storms will be
possible this afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary hazard.
Sunday...The low finally begins to propagate through Arizona on
Sunday as it lifts and weakens. One last day of more unsettled
weather is expected as a result. Coverage for Sunday will likely be
down a bit from today, but still scattered in nature. There remains
some question where exactly the best chances will be, as it depends
on where lingering debris clouds remain from any early morning
convection. As of now, guidance looks to favor areas near and north
of the I-40 corridor. Localized flash flooding, and perhaps a few
strong to severe storms will be the main hazards once again.
Monday through Friday...Drier conditions look to set in across
northern Arizona in the wake of the low. Heights look to rise
gradually through the weak, brining gradual return of warmer, more
seasonable temperatures to the region. Outside of a slight chance
for showers along with gusty winds on Tuesday from as weak trough,
dry conditions look to prevail for the coming week.
&&
.AVIATION...Saturday 27/18Z through Sunday 28/18Z...VFR to MVFR
conditions expected. Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA expected
throughout the day with isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA during the
overnight hours. Gusty and erratic winds near TSRA, otherwise
winds S-SE 5-10kts, gusts to 20kts daytime, light and variable or
terrain driven overnight.
OUTLOOK...Sunday 28/18Z through Tuesday 30/18Z...VFR conditions,
brief MVFR near SHRA/TSRA on Sunday, VFR conditions Monday and
Tuesday. Scattered SHRA/TSRA from 18Z Sun to 03Z Monday, no
precipitation expected after 03Z Monday. Winds SW 10-15kts during
the day, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will continue through Sunday evening before the
Low pressure system moves off to the east.  Things will be dry out
on Monday with a slow warming trend beginning. Winds outside of
thunderstorm activity will be SW 5-15 mph each day.
Tuesday through Thursday...Much drier with daytime temperatures
rising to seasonal averages. Daytime winds S-SW at 10 to 20 mph. Min
RH values 25-40% Tuesday, 20-35% Wednesday, 15-30% Thursday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion