Tonka Bay, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

316
FXUS63 KMPX 270536
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1236 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably mild & dry weather continues through the end of
  the September.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Another pleasant Fall day with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s,
mostly sunny skies, and no precipitation. Aloft, the current pattern
is dominated by two upstream features: the persistent troughing in
the Gulf of Alaska and a stubborn ridging across the north-central
NOAM. This has forced the jet stream & low pressures into Canada
while we`re left in weak flow aloft. I would expect this type of
pattern to persist into October given the longevity of each feature.
In plain language - we`re more likely to experience seasonably warm
& dry conditions as any low pressures track up and over the ridge.
The one notable weather feature will be a dry frontal passage
Saturday morning, that`ll bring a brief cool down to highs in the
low to mid 70s as opposed to upper 70s/lower 80s. Northwest winds
will be gusty behind the front on Saturday. Sporadic gusts up to 25
mph appear possible. Behind the front, we`ll usher in a drier air
mass with dew point temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s.
Temperatures begin to rebound on Sunday before the ridge amps up
early next week. Highs will climb into the 80s Monday & Tuesday
before another dry FROPA will cool us back into the 70s for the
second half of next week. That remains 5 to 10+ degrees above our
normal temperatures for early October. The one glimmer of hope for
precip arrives late week as a potent shortwave trough moves through
southern Canada. Guidance depicts an uptick in moisture advection
ahead of this wave that`ll allow the chance for showers &
thunderstorms along the sfc boundary Friday. The current signal is
noisy as ensemble members are spread between drier & wetter
solutions in the EPS & GEFS. There is also the potential tropical
system off the SE coast that will introduce an extra variable to the
forecast equation for mid to late week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions through the period with a few clouds accompanying
a frontal passage this morning. Winds will transition from
southerly overnight to southwesterly as the front approaches,
and finally northwesterly as the front passes from west to east
across the area this morning. A few hours of northwesterly winds
gusts around 20 kts are expected after the front passes this
morning with speeds dropping back below 10 kts by mid to late
afternoon. Winds become either light & variable or calm after
sunset.
KMSP...Expect a wind shift to northwesterly with the frontal
passage around 6-7 AM. northwesterly winds gust around 20 kts
after the frontal passage through mid-afternoon.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SSE 5-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-15 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...ETA

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion