Tortugas, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

453
FXUS64 KEPZ 011136
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
536 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 518 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Dry conditions persist through the weekend.
- Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal as a drier air
   mass takes over. Southerly winds may also become a little
   breezy Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 935 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
The monsoon season has wrapped up, but that doesn`t mean that rain
is completely out of the forecast; we will stay dry through the
coming weekend, though. An upper level ridge centered to our south
over northern Mexico won`t be in much of a hurry to move off.
This ridge will keep us dry, with light winds and our high
temperatures running around 5 degrees above average.
By Saturday, the ridge shows signs of breaking down as a decent
upper level trough pushes across the Four Corners region. This
trough won`t have much moisture to work with, but it may give us
some clouds. The other impact from the trough will be the breezy
winds. Right now, it doesn`t look too windy. We do have a lee side
trough develop Saturday afternoon, but it doesn`t look very
strong, so for now it looks like we will have breezy (15 to 25
mph) winds Saturday afternoon. Right now I`m not expecting much
blowing dust; the winds aren`t that strong and recent rains should
continue to help keep the dust down. High temperatures this
weekend will continue to run a few degrees above average.
For the start of next week, another upper level ridge will
initially be centered over southeast U.S. and the circulation
around the ridge will begin to draw up some lingering moisture out
of northern Mexico. Right now it is still too early to tell if we
will get enough moisture for some rain chances for Monday
afternoon. After Monday the current extended models indicate that
some tropical moisture from a Pacific tropical system may try to
make its way into the southwest U.S. later next week, but where
the moisture goes will depend on both the track of the tropical
system and the exact location of the upper level ridge. For now
you can enjoy our quiet and warm weather through at least Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Mainly SKC
persist with winds AOB 7kts and variable. FEW080 develop during
the afternoon and dissipate in the evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 518 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period.
Upper ridging builds over the region for the rest of the week,
resulting in warm and dry conditions. Winds will be light through
Thu from the S-SE, becoming breezier for the weekend ahead of an
approaching trough and shifting southwesterly. Wind speeds of
10-20 mph can be expected Saturday afternoon as the pressure
gradient tightens a bit. RHs remain above critical levels, but
fuels will begin to dry during the weekend from their current
levels. Rain/storm chances remain near zero through the weekend
with a signal for increasing moisture into the middle of next
week. Overnight recoveries will be good through Sun. Temperatures
will be a few degrees above normal.
Min RHs range from 15-30% through Sun, 25-40% in the Sacs. Vent
rates will be poor to good today, improving to good to excellent
by the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  66  92  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            57  86  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               59  87  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               60  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               45  66  44  64 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    58  86  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              55  81  57  80 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   58  90  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                60  87  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       65  90  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                58  89  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             63  92  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               60  83  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   63  91  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             62  88  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           63  87  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            60  87  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    58  90  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 60  90  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                58  86  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  49  77  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                49  78  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 48  74  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  48  79  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                56  86  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                57  86  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             48  82  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   54  84  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    55  88  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               53  84  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  56  82  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   59  89  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  58  87  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           60  88  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               59  84  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...39-Aronson

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion