Tridell, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

433
FXUS65 KGJT 241110
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
510 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer and drier conditions move in for the next couple of
  days before moisture increases from south to north throughout
  the weekend.
- A prolonged period of wet weather is possible this weekend
  through early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
High pressure will be settling over the Intermountain West
today...separating a closed low off the Cali coast and a large
trough East of the Rockies. This means mainly clear skies and
warming temperatures the next few days. Highs today will be some
5 to 15 degrees above yesterday but still end up below normal by
a few degrees in most areas. The warning trend continues into
Thursday with highs then ending up a few degrees above normal.
Dry weather is highly probable during the short term period but
moisture with a SubTrop source will be lifting toward the 4
Corners as we move into the late week period and the Cali low
moves inland.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A weak blocking ridge sets up over the Rockies Thursday, with
much of the CONUS cutoff from the polar jet rippling across the
Canadian Border. This is expected to keep weather conditions
somewhat stagnant for a few days as models grapple with seasonal
shift. A weak cutoff low over SOCAL pushes against the ridge to
no avail. Temperatures warm up near seasonal normals beneath
the ridge, while a few clouds begin to emerge from the south
Friday ahead of the drifting low. PWAT values do come up Friday,
but forcing looks like it might not materialize. I think an
isolated shower for southeast Utah and southwest Colorado is
reasonable on the terrain Friday afternoon. Saturday and Sunday
look more convincing, as the eastern Pacific trough kicks the,
now open wave, across the Four Corners. This will send
widespread showers and thunderstorms across the CWA through the
weekend. Ensemble PWAT values climb near 190 percent of normal
late Saturday and early Sunday. This is worth keeping an eye on,
given historical September trends for heavier rain around the
CWA. Temperatures beneath the cloud cover Sunday are expected to
trend below average, especially around showers and storms.
Monday and Tuesday remain active by deterministic model outputs.
A PACNW system is expected to send additional moisture our way
via strong southwesterly flow. Given this solution follows a
pattern shift, I would expect to see some changes in the coming
model runs. This would keep temperatures mild with additional
cloud cover and precipitation to start the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 509 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR conditions are prevailing at TAF sites under mainly clear
skies early this morning. There are a few clouds lingering near
KHDN and KEGE that could fill in for a ceiling through mid
morning but confidence is low. Otherwise winds will remain light
and skies mainly clear the next 24 hours.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion