Tryon, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

491
FXUS63 KLBF 131125
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
625 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are
  expected this evening and tonight. A few storms could be
  strong to severe, with hail, strong wind gusts, and locally
  heavy rainfall as the main hazards.
- Storms persist into Sunday, with another round of strong to
  severe storms possible Sunday afternoon and evening. Hail,
  strong wind gusts, and locally heavy rainfall will again be
  possible near and east of Highway 83.
- A brief lull in precipitation is expected Monday, before an
  approaching cold front brings a return of showers and
  thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Currently, temperatures range from the upper 60s to lower 70s, with
a surface trough positioned near the HWY 61 corridor. Earlier
shower and thunderstorms across western Nebraska have begun to
wane, as a strong low level jet continues to veer off into
eastern Nebraska.
For today, expect scattered thunderstorms to persist across portions
of western Nebraska through this morning and afternoon, aided by a
weak low-level upslope flow regime. Coverage will remain somewhat
limited through early afternoon, before an upper low begins to eject
out of the Four Corners and across the Rockies. At the surface, a
deepening surface low will begin to slowly eject east across South
Dakota, with an associated cold front pushing into the Sandhills.
This should lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage,
with widespread precipitation expected for much of western and
central Nebraska by this evening. Though instability looks to remain
limited today due to persistent cloudiness, MUCAPE still rises to
~500-1000J/kg and with modest deep layer shear points to some threat
for a stronger storm or two. Hail and strong winds would be the main
hazards this evening. The greatest threat may come in the form of
locally heavy rainfall, with PWAT values exceeding the 90th
percentile climo across the area today. In fact, HREF guidance
paints ~50-80% probabilities of >0.50" of rainfall for a broad area
along and west of HWY 83 through early Sunday morning.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms persist into Sunday morning,
before the parent H5 low begins to eject overhead into western
Nebraska. This could lead to a drier period Sunday afternoon, as
much of the area enters the dry slot. This break will be short-lived
however, as thunderstorms are expected to initiate along the surface
front near and east of HWY 83. Instability will again be the biggest
question mark, though any breaks in cloud cover will need to be
monitored. Shear remains supportive of updraft organization (~35-
45kts) ahead of the frontal boundary, and could lead to a strong to
severe storm or two. Locally heavy rainfall will again be a threat
with any thunderstorms, as PWAT values remain well above the 90th
percentile climo. A secondary regime of precipitation will be within
the deformation zone across western and northwest Nebraska as the
low slowly pivots east. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible
in this regime. Precipitation then slowly wanes into early Monday
morning, as the low begins to depart the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Drier conditions then prevail on Monday, as the aforementioned
system continues to departs off to the east. By Tuesday, an
upper low begins to eject into the northern Plains out of the
Intermountain West. As associated surface low pressure ejects
across the Dakotas Tuesday afternoon, a cold front begins to
push into the area. Will have to monitor a threat for
thunderstorms with this frontal boundary, as increasing
instability overspreads southwest into central and north central
Nebraska. Some threat for strong to severe storms could exist
across portions of the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. The
aforementioned upper low looks to slowly depart the area
through midweek, with at least some threat for precipitation
continuing. Confidence then wanes for late week, though at least
some threat for precipitation may return next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Widespread showers and thunderstorms overspread the area this
evening and tonight, bringing MVFR visibilities and a threat for
gusty, erratic winds. CIGs also lower through the night, with
an expansion of MVFR/locally IFR by late in the valid period
tomorrow morning.
Winds remain southerly today and tonight, at around 10 to
15kts.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion