Tulare, California Weather Forecast Discussion

923
FXUS66 KHNX 280857
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
157 AM PDT Sun Sep 28 2025
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. The thunderstorm chances continue once again this afternoon,
with a 15 to 35% probability for development between 2pm and
5pm for the Sierra Nevada and the northeastern portion of Kern
County. The last day for thunderstorms as of now is Monday, with
a 10 to 20% chance that afternoon.
2. A Marginal Risk (at least 5%) for excessive rainfall still
exists for this afternoon, mainly on the leeward side of the
Sierra Nevada north of Kern COunty. This continues on Monday,
though the area of impact is slightly further east.
3. A cooling trend is expected to start today with temperatures
becoming below normal for this time of year. This is forecast
to continue for at least the next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Lingering moisture from the past few day`s thunderstorms and the
incoming trough may lead to further thunderstorms this
afternoon, with the chances for development in the 15 to 35
range along the Sierra Nevada crest and into the northeastern
portion of Kern County. There is also a continuing Marginal
Risk (at least 5%) of excessive rainfall along with these
chances, the area of which is mainly on the leeward side of the
Sierra Nevada north of Kern County. A small amount of
thunderstorm chances (10 to 20%) exist tomorrow, as well, mainly
along the Sierra Nevada crest north of Tulare County. The
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall remains as well, though
further to the east compared to today. These conditions on
Monday are due to the incoming trough from the Pacific coming
further inland and pushing the weakening cut-off low out of the
region.
Along with this trough as well as the thunderstorms is an
overall cooldown for the region, beginning today, with
temperatures becoming below normal for this time of year. These
conditions are likely to hold due to a series of troughs coming
near or above our area, leading to below average temperatures,
though likely not much precipitation, as the core of these
troughs remain to our north.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z Update:
A 15-35 percent chance of thunderstorms from 18Z Sunday through
03Z Monday will exist across the Sierra Nevada and into the
Kern County mountains and Desert. Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected for the next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
EW
weather.gov/hanford

NWS HNX Office Area Forecast Discussion