Tulare, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

589
FXUS63 KABR 220801
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
301 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is less than 20% chance for mainly showers over south
central SD early this evening.
- An extended period of dry and mild conditions look to set in
across the region into the upcoming weekend, with high temperatures
about 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
As of 08z, some fog is starting to develop over east central SD,
and some patches of lower visibility are expected to develop to the
west of the James River through the early morning hours. The fog
looks to be patchy, but some areas of more widespread fog have the
possibility to form. This fog should mix out a little after sun rise,
but it could take areas with denser fog a bit more time to dissipate
into clear skies for the rest of the day.
An upper-level trough and upper-level lower pressure are over MT/WY
this morning and will move southeast though today and Tuesday. This
will help to move an area of lower surface pressure from western SD,
as well as an attached frontal boundary over southern SD, towards
central NE today. Late Monday afternoon into the evening, showers
and storms are forecast to develop along this front. Models are
showing the highest chances to the south of SD, with areas in
southern Jones and Lyman counties being on the northernmost edge of
the precipitation chances, with less than 20% chance for rain.
Models show that there is not a lot of instability and energy in
south central SD for storm development, with higher CAPE values, of
slightly below 1000 J/kg, moving south during the late afternoon
leaving values drop below 400 J/kg over south central SD during the
early evening. The rest of central SD is forecast to have higher CIN
values, keeping the area capped during the afternoon and evening
reducing the chances for storm develop.
Tonight into Tuesday morning the flow over central and northeastern
SD shifts from the east northeast to be from the north with some
higher pressure moving in over the state. This higher pressure helps
to reduce the chances for rain and storms Tuesday. Temperatures look
to be in the low to upper 70s both today and on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
The extended period looks to remain quiet with a lack of any
significant/impactful weather. GEFS/GEPS/ENS all in good agreement
in showing 850mb temps in the teens to around +20C at times through
the period. As far as temps are concerned, it appears readings will
be above normal with highs generally in the 70s to low 80s at times.
In general, about 5 to 10 degrees above normal through the period.
Models don`t really show any signs of cold air intrusions through
the 7-day period, so no threat for frost/freeze conditions anytime
soon either it appears.
As for precipitation, well, there really is none in the forecast
through the entire extended period as models don`t really show any
disturbances of significance moving through the region. There are a
couple frontal passages possibly through the period, but that`s
about it.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
Main focus overnight into Monday morning is whether and how bad
will VISBY reductions get due to fog under light easterly low level
flow.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...07

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion