Turret, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

111
FXUS65 KPUB 292221
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
421 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms expected
  through Tuesday with gusty winds, lightning and brief heavy
  rainfall the main storm risks.
- At and above seasonal temperatures and mainly dry for the middle
  of the work week.
- Increasing chances for showers and storms on Friday, with
  cooler and more unsettled weather for the weekend into early
  next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
A dampening upper wave will lift northeast of the area this evening
with another weaker shortwave moving into western CO on Tuesday.
Thunderstorms this evening will continue to diminish with generally
isolated to scattered coverage late this afternoon tailing off on
the back side of the system this evening.  With CAPE up to around
500 J/kg, gusty outflow winds up to 45 mph, lightning and brief
heavy rainfall will be the primary risks through early this
evening. Some isolated pea size hail will be possible with
storms over El Paso County late this afternoon. Otherwise,
clearing skies but residual moisture will keep lows on the mild
side once again. Although some patchy frost will be possible in
portions of the San Luis Valley, coverage looks too limited for
any advisories.
Another shortwave in southwest flow rides to the northwest, entering
western and central CO during the afternoon.  Atmosphere will be a
little drier with less CAPE to work with, but we should see another
round of isolated showers and thunderstorms over the mountains in
the afternoon.  Gusty winds, lightning and some brief moderate
rainfall will be possible in spotty areas.  Otherwise, it will be
dry with above normal temperatures.  Winds will be a little breezier
out west in the afternoon, but humidity values will stay above
critical thresholds. -KT
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Tuesday night-Thursday night...Modest west to southwest flow
aloft remains progged across the region, as upper level ridging
builds across the Rockies through the middle of the week. This
will keep generally dry conditions and above seasonal
temperatures in place with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s
expected across the plains, and mainly in the 60s and 70s across
the higher terrain. Overnight lows look to remain at and above
seasonal levels as well, with no widespread sub-freezing
temperatures in the offing through this period.
Friday-Saturday...Latest models continue to indicate increasing
southwest flow aloft across the region on Friday, ahead of a broad
upper trough digging across the Great Basin. This will allow for
increasing chances of showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms,
especially along and west of the ContDvd on Friday, with temperatures
warming to well above seasonal levels in the 80s to lower 90s across
the plains. Models continue to differ on the amplitude of the this
system as it continues to lift out across the Rockies through the day
Saturday. With that said, NBM data keeps chance to slight chance pops
in in place across the region, with the best chances across the Central
mountains into the Pikes Peak region and northward across Northern
Colorado Friday night and Saturday. Passing system sends a cold front
across the region, with highs on Saturday some 5-15 degrees cooler than
Friday.
Sunday-Monday...A cooler and continued unsettled weather remains in the
offing for the end of the weekend into early next week, as more short
wave energy digs across the Great Basin and lifts out across the
Rockies.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 418 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Some weak passing showers/-tsra will be possible at the taf
sites at the beginning of this fcst period. Brief variable gusty
winds to 30 knts and shra with some isold thunder main concern.
Otherwise VFR conditions expected remainder of the period. It
should be dry through the day tomorrow.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion