Turret, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

724
FXUS65 KPUB 201742
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1142 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm today with scattered storms over the mtns and mtns/plains
interface, isolated storms elsewhere.
- Rather strong front to move across region late Monday, much cooler
Tuesday into Wednesday with SNOW likely over some of the higher mtns
- Warming up again late week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Overall, a warm day is likely. Expect max temps in the L80s across
most of the plains with 70s on the divides. Valleys should see 70s
with 50s and 60s mtns (40s mtn tops). There will be scattered storms
over the higher terrain today and with lots of outdoor activities
over the region today, lightning is going to be a concern today.
Storm activity over the mtns will be isolate during the early
afternoon with storms becoming more scattered later in the day
(especially San Juans) and potential for more active storms over the
Pikes Peak region late afternoon and early evening (4-7pm). The
greatest threat for thunder in the Pueblo area will be 5 pm to 8 pm.
Although storms are not expected to be technically severe, they will
produce gusty winds, possibly some small hail and cloud to ground
lightning.
Tonight...
Most if not all of the thunder will occur over the plains during the
6 pm to midnight time period. Similar to the above, storms will
produce locally strong gusty winds, brief periods of heavy rain and
cloud to ground lightning.
Min temps late tonight will fall into the L50s across most of the
plains with temps around 40s in the larger valleys and 30s mtns.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Sunday will be a few degrees warmer than Todays max temps. Overall,
it will be drier most areas, with the best chance of any thunder
over the mtns north of US50.
Monday...a strong cold front will likely be coming across the region
late in the day. Prior to the front, it will be warm again, but I
believe the front will come in a bit quicker than guidance
indicates, and temps may not be as warm as currently indicated.
Storms will likely be on the increase in the higher terrain on this
day, and will likely pick up in coverage over the plains during the
evening hours. SPC has the extreme eastern plains under a marginal
risk, and I would not be all that surprised if this pushes back
towards the mtns in later updates.
Tuesday...
Sharply cooler! Long range deterministic guidance show a closed low
pushing southeastward across northeast Colorado region, with the EC
being most farthest west. If this verifies, we may see our first
good chance of high elevation snow over the central and Pikes Peak
region during this time frame. DESI statistical guidance indicates
it will be quite cool over the fcst areas on Tuesday, and 60s to
L70s are expected over the plains, and it will likely be on the
breezy side all locations Tuesday afternoon. Scattered showers will
likely occur region-wide during the day Tuesday (especially the NW
slopes of the mtns). Some freezing conditions could occur over the
San Luis Valley Tuesday night/Wed morning.
It should be noted that if the cutoff low tracks farther south
and west, then potential higher elevation snow impacts will
likely increase over the region.
Wednesday...Temps will warm up slightly as compared to Tuesday. POPs
will be isolated this day with best chance s mtns.
Thursday into the weekend...
Warm up with mainly isolated pops.
No fire weather concerns are anticipated during this period.
/Hodanish
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Upper disturbance cresting the northern edge of a broad upper ridge
will help spark a bit more convection across the area today, though
in general VFR conditions are anticipated for much of the area over
the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAf sites of KCOS, KPUB
and KALS. Surface winds will be diurnal in direction and 12 kts or
less. Specifics for the three TAF sites below.
KCOS: PROB30 wording for -TSRA and variable gusts to 30 kts 22z-02z,
with possible intermittent MVFR conditions due to brief lowered cigs.
KPUB: PROB30 wording for -TSRA and variable gusts to 28 kts 23z-03z,
with possible intermittent MVFR conditions due to brief lowered cigs.
KALS: PROB30 wording for -TSRA and variable gusts to 28 kts 21z-02z,
with possible intermittent MVFR conditions due to brief lowered
cigs. TEMPO for MVFR/IFR cigs and vsby early tomorrow morning 11z-
15z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion