Turtle River, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

802
FXUS63 KFGF 101724
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1224 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chances for thunderstorms increase in northeast North Dakota
  Thursday. Eastern edge of instability does shift into Devils
  Lake area Thursday late day into the night with isolated
  severe storm risk.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Remaining fog has cleared, with all sites now reporting
visibilities back up to 10 SM. This sets the stage for a quiet
rest of the day under sunny/mostly sunny skies. Only minor
tweaks were made to the going forecast.
UPDATE
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Adjusted the current dense fog advisory, extending in time
Cass, Ransom, Richland and Sargent counties through 11 AM.
Satellite and surface observations show a persistent area of
dense fog covering a majority of each of these counties. The
rest of the dense fog advisory has been allowed to expire on
time at 10 AM. While there are infrequent sites that drop to a
quarter mile of visibility, improvement has been rapid over the
past hour,a nd should continue based on satellite trends.
Adjusted other products to match the updated hazard timing.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...AM Fog...
Fog formed in central MN this evening had as been inching
north-northwest ever since with light south-southeast boundary
layer flow. This is more advection fog than what we say last
night which was radiational ground fog. Question as always is
how far north/northwest will fog get. Did add far se ND into
dense fog advisory region...Richland and Sargent counties.
Satellite shows the low clouds and fog on a bee line for Fargo
and south Cass county....but moving more north than west.
Updated TAF to indicate some fog moving into Fargo by 11z.
Fog area also northeast through Park Rapids area, though more
patchy there, and into Cass Lake MN area, but again webcams show
more patchy than widespread.
Once any fog burns off this morning, sunny today. Highs similar
to Tuesday mid 70s to around 80.
...Severe Risk parts of NE North Dakota Thursday...
850 mb jet of 35 kts to get going this upcoming night (Wed
night) over western ND and looks like showers and t-storms will
develop in south central and southeast Saskatchewan and parts of
NW North Dakota this evening. How far east any storms get is
highly uncertain. General model consensus is to take higher
storm chances north of the border thru SW Manitoba, skirting
north central ND late tonight. On Thursday itself, showers and
t-storms possible in continued warm adv zone over parts of
southwest or south central Manitoba and north central and
northwest ND. Instability will increase over central ND
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ensemble mean showing a 50 pct area of sfc CAPE
more than 1000 j/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear 30 kts and higher
centered near the ND/MB border west of Devils Lake Thursday
afternoon with a slight shift eastward into Devils Lake basin
Thursday night as low level jet shifts east more into the Red
River valley with focus of this jet being Winnipeg area. Thus
model blends increase pops late Thu and Thu night with likely
pops along the North Dakota and Manitoba border. Given potential
strength of 850 mb jet and instability working into DVL region
late Thursday aftn/eve isold severe storm is possible with hail
to 1 inch the main issue. SPC has DVL basin and west in a level
1 out of 5 severe risk for Thursday.
What happens thereafter is that the focus for instability and
best rainfall shifts more west into western ND Friday-Saturday
as upper low in southern Oregon, Idaho Thus lifts NNE into
southern Saskatchewan this weekend. Arc of instability and
showers and t-storms will work east as this does with Sunday
seeing the higher storm chances to the RRV and E ND. Too soon to
tell if any storm may be strong or severe in the Red River
valley. Wouldn`t discount it as temps this weekend in the RRV
and east into MN in the low to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR will prevail for the rest of today into early tonight.
After midnight, there is uncertainty regarding two features.
The first is if fog/low stratus develops around KBJI near
sunrise. If this does, we could see IFR for a few hours in the
morning. At this time, added an MVFR period during the timeframe
these lower visibilities/ceilings look the most likely if they
do occur. The other feature of interest is out west at KDVL.
Here, a lower deck of clouds looks to pass through late tonight
into Thursday morning, with embedded showers, maybe even a
rumble of thunder. How low ceilings go, how widespread any
precipitation is, and if there is any thunder associated with
this activity all remains questionable. For now, just added
VCSH and MVFR ceilings for a period of Thursday morning at KDVL.
This will be refined over the next sets of TAFs as
predictability increases.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Rafferty/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Rafferty

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion