Tutor Key, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

810
FXUS63 KJKL 110607 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
207 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly dry weather is expected to persist for the next week.
- Temperatures should warm to near or above normal by the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
No major changes made to the grids as they`ve largely been on
track. Just loaded in the latest surface observations to account
for the radiational cooling taking place across the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 412 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
Late today a surface ridge remained near the eastern slopes of the
Appalachians, continuing to give us relatively dry air. Aloft, a
trough extended from the upper Great Lakes through the lower Ohio
Valley and was slowly moving east. There is slight mid level
cooling beneath the trough. The steepening lapse rates have been
enough to allow for convection capped below 500 mb over central
KY. This has allowed for some returns on radar, but nothing has
measured at any KY Mesonet sites yet. As the regime shifts east,
the steeper low-mid level lapse rates move across our southwest
counties overnight and on Thursday. NAM forecast soundings are
more moist in the lower levels than the GFS and suggest there
could be some sprinkles or very isolated showers. The more moist
NAM looks like it`s verifying better than the drier GFS today, and
in light of this, sprinkles are included the forecast for our
southwestern counties. Once the trough moves past on Thursday
night, dry weather and clear skies should finish out the short
term period.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
Dry northerly flow persists behind a departing disturbance Friday,
with another mostly dry upper disturbance diving south-southeast
across the area Saturday. Highly amplified upper ridging then builds
east over the region through the remainder of the weekend and
persists through the remainder of the long-term period into the
middle of next week.
At this time the best chance through the long-term for any
precipitation is Saturday night with the passing upper disturbance,
but the atmospheric moisture profile suggests conditions that are a
little too dry for much of anything measurable outside of perhaps a
stray shower or sprinkles. In line with the NBM, will be raising
PoPs up to 10 to 15 percent PoPs across the north, mainly along and
north of Interstate 64, to account for this.
Temperatures will gradually continue to rise through the weekend,
with near normal highs in the lower to mid 80s Friday rising to the
mid to upper 80s for Saturday through the remainder of the period.
Lows will mostly persist in the 50s, with lower 60s outside of
sheltered valleys on the warmest nights during the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
A passing upper level disturbance is leading to some mid level
clouds across western portions of the region at issuance time and
few clouds nearer to the WV border. A sfc ridge of high pressure
continues to dominated. This has led to IFR or lower river valley
fog is occurring as well per satellite imagery and KY Mesonet
CAMS. However, VFR was reported at issuance time for the TAF
sites. As has occurred the past couple of nights, this fog should
remain out of or largely out of the TAF sites and a VFR forecast
was maintained for the TAF sites. Once valley fog dissipates
between 12Z and 14Z, all locations should experience VFR, though
some reductions in fog are possible again by the 03Z to 06Z
timeframe. Otherwise, light and variable winds are expected.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...JP

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion