University, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

397
FXUS62 KMFL 281109
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
709 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The focus of the short term forecast period relates to Tropical
Depression Nine as it will be enhancing its development during the
short term period. Tropical Depression Nine currently sits just
north of the northeast coast of Cuba and is expected to take a NNW
track in the next 24-48 hours before uncertainty increases in its
eventual track at that point. The latest forecast from the National
Hurricane Center is that the system will reach Tropical Storm
strength later this morning and eventually low-end Hurricane
strength as it moves further up the coast and away from South
Florida.
At this time, impacts from this system are mainly expected to occur
in the offshore waters where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect
and currently no headlines issued for land areas. It is highly
unlikely at this point that land areas in South Florida will see any
possibility for Tropical Storm force winds, especially since even
the further offshore waters are expected to see low-end Tropical
Storm force winds out of the N/NW perhaps in the 40-45 mph range.
However, this does not completely rule out the risk for further
elevated winds across the region or in the offshore waters, it only
states that it`s highly unlikely.
Overall, the primary threat from Tropical Depression Nine right now
looks to still be potential for heavy rainfall. East coast areas
would be at highest risk, but right now a reasonable worst case
scenario (10% chance for exceedance) for the next 72 hours across
the east coast is 3-5" for most areas and 4-6" for the Palm Beach
county coast. With these amounts being over several days, it would
likely not cause significant flooding concerns. However, there is
still time for minor changes in the development and track of this
system, and any minor change can have big changes in relation to
impacts. Therefore, regardless of development and the system`s
track, enough heavy rainfall can occur that can lead to localized
flooding both today and Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The tropical system that is currently Tropical Depression Nine will
be further departing from the area at the beginning of the long term
forecast period, so impacts from it will begin to be less and less
heading into the middle of next week. Some lingering marine and
beach hazards will be possible as it moves northwards in the early
week period, but otherwise a quasi-zonal flow pattern is expected to
develop by mid-week period with perhaps a weak broad upper level
ridge. Additionally, some drier air is expected to be filtered into
South Florida behind the tropical system`s departure. As a result,
rain chances drop pretty significantly to mostly 20-30% for Tuesday
and Wednesday this week. By the end of the week, guidance is hinting
at mid-level troughing development across the SE states and Gulf
plus some deeper moisture return, which could lead to an increase in
PoPs once again for the end of the week and into next weekend.
However, with this being at the tail end of the forecast period
uncertainty is still rather high.
Daily high temperatures for the middle of the week are expected in
the low 90s for most areas. By the end of next week, a slight
decrease to the mid and upper 80s for daily high temperatures is
expected across the region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may bring periods of
MVFR/IFR across the east coast terminals today as outer bands
from TD 9 move closer to the area. Winds increase out of the NNE
after 15z and will range between 10 to 15 kts through the
afternoon. Gusts of 20 to 25 kts will be possible across the east
coast terminals this afternoon. At KAPF, winds become NNW in the
afternoon and sct storms could develop during the late afternoon.
Winds shift back to the NW late tonight but remain gusty through
the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
A moderate to fresh breeze is expected to develop across the local
Atlantic waters later today and extending into early this next week
as Tropical Depression Nine (likely to become Tropical Storm Imelda)
works its way northwards in the next several days. These winds will
be mainly out of the north today before shifting NW on Monday. This
will be similar for the Gulf waters, but winds will not be as strong
and likely just remain at a moderate breeze.
Hazardous winds and seas are expected for the Atlantic waters over
the next few days as increasing swell and winds occurs as a result
of the tropical disturbance. Seas will rise to 8-11 feet by Monday.
Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
A high risk for rip currents is in place across all Atlantic beaches
as increasing winds and swell occur due to a strengthening tropical
system passing nearby in the offshore Atlantic waters. An elevated
risk could persist for several days into the middle of this week or
later as a result of this.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            88  75  91  76 /  80  50  40  20
West Kendall     89  75  91  75 /  80  30  40  20
Opa-Locka        89  76  91  76 /  80  50  40  20
Homestead        88  75  91  75 /  70  30  40  20
Fort Lauderdale  86  75  89  75 /  80  60  40  20
N Ft Lauderdale  86  76  89  76 /  80  60  40  20
Pembroke Pines   89  76  92  76 /  70  50  40  20
West Palm Beach  86  75  87  75 /  80  70  50  20
Boca Raton       87  75  89  74 /  80  60  50  20
Naples           92  76  90  78 /  50  20  20  10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.
AM...Tropical Storm Watch for AMZ630-651.
Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ650-670-671.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...17

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion