Upsala, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

427
FXUS63 KMPX 291922
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
222 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Summer-like weather continues into the beginning of October.
- Low chance for some scattered sprinkles tomorrow, better chance
for widespread showers and thunderstorms arrives this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
In a nice change of scenery, satellite imagery shows some clouds
across the region this afternoon. This hasn`t been enough to keep
the summer-like temperatures at bay though, with a handful of
sites in western Minnesota breaking the 90 degree mark. Further
east, temperatures are in the low to mid 80s. Another change
from the past few days is that Tds have climbed into the low 60s
thanks to the return of southerly flow. This increase in
moisture coupled with a weak wave embedded in the ridge could
lead to a few sprinkles early tomorrow morning. Forecast
soundings are still fairly dry in the low levels, so anything
that does fall will be very light. During the afternoon, daytime
heating may spark another round of sprinkles and/or an isolated
rumble of thunder, particularly across central and northern
Minnesota.
If you`re still not quite ready to let go of the warm and sunny
weather, the rest of the work week has you covered. Highs gradually
warm through the second half of the week with widespread 90s looking
increasingly likely Friday. While record daily highs may be just out
of reach, some record warm lows may be in jeopardy. The ridge
begins to break down as we head into the weekend, but models are
split on what happens after this occurs. The spread on timing,
placement, and strength of a developing surface low over the
weekend is quite high, as expected at this time range. It is
worth noting that both EPS/GEFS ensemble members seem to have
backed off QPF amounts and the NBM has tamped down PoPs a bit.
So, the widespread smattering of 30-50 NBM PoPs through next
Monday seems reasonable. There is stronger agreement on our
temperatures slowly coming down as we get into the first full
week of October, but in general, we look to still be running
some 10+ degrees above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Gradual increase in high clouds today. Ceilings will gradually
lower tonight into Tuesday morning but will remain VFR. A weak
disturbance could cause a few isolated showers Tuesday morning.
Fortunately, there is a sizable dry air layer that should limit
any pcpn to sprinkles around sunrise Tuesday AM. Southeasterly
winds increase to near 10 kts this afternoon and then drop below
5 kts after sunset. Winds pick back up to 7 to 10kts Tuesday
late morning.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind SSE 10G20 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind S 10G20 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chance PM -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind S 10G20 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...BPH

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion