Upton, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

682
FXUS63 KLMK 251906
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
306 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
*  A few isolated to scattered showers remain possible this
   afternoon, but an overall drier trend is forecast.
*  Dense Fog could develop in some locations later tonight.
*  Mostly dry with warming temperatures expected this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The positive tilted upper trough remains over the region today,
though the associated jet core is centered more over eastern KY with
a speed max over Ohio. GOES satellite imagery shows some breaks in
the cloud cover, which had led to sfc temps to be a few degrees
warmer across southern KY. We have a ten degree spread ongoing
across the forecast area, with Clinton County Mesonet reporting 81,
but one of the Shelby County Mesonet sites sitting at 71. SPC
Mesoanalysis indicates some elevated PWATs around 1.5", with SBCAPE
values around 1000 J/kg across the south. While the entire area could
see a light shower or drizzle, the best chances for any afternoon
showers and weaker storms will be along and south of the KY
Parkways. Coverage will be fairly isolated to scattered, but given
the recent heavy rainfall, activity will be worth just keeping an
eye on for any minor hydro issues.
Cloud cover continues to break up tonight as any lingering showers
diminish in our east. A drier trend will settle in, though the
signal is still present for some dense fog development since we have
not mixed out much this afternoon. With clearing skycover, should
have a decent radiational cooling night combined with leftover
moisture from the recent rain. Guidance suggest the best chances for
dense fog will be east of I-65, especially in the Bluegrass.
For tomorrow, the upper trough axis is expected to slide across the
TN Valley, further removing any associated moisture and forcing from
our area. May end up seeing a few more clouds in the east just given
the closer proximity to the upper jet over the spine of the
Appalachians, but otherwise a mostly sunny day with highs in the
upper 70s should be expected. It`ll be a fairly nice day, with temps
right on track for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
===== Saturday - Sunday =====
Mostly dry weather is expected for the weekend, though we will still
be dealing with the upper trough over the region as it develops into
a weak upper closed low. Weak upper level jet and vorticity will
mainly be situated over the Appalachians, focusing the better
forcing to the east of our area. Some moisture may work it`s way far
enough west to support some isolated shower chances in eastern KY,
though building upper ridge over the central US will counter most
precip chances. Still can`t rule out a low end chance in our far
eastern extent of the CWA, though most of the area should remain
dry. Temps are expected to peak in the upper 70s to lower 80s for
the weekend, with mostly sunny skycover, though a bit more clouds in
the east possible due to closer proximity to the forcing and
moisture.
===== Monday - Wednesday =====
Mostly dry conditions are expected to continue into early next week,
though this remains a low confidence forecast given the large amount
of uncertainty related to the developing tropical systems. The
deterministic global solutions tend to have agreement on Invest 94L
eventually making a US landfall in the Carolinas early next week,
which ultimately should bring increasing chances for showers and
storms. In contrast, the ensemble suits show quite a different
trend, with little to no agreement in the spaghetti plots, and
possibly diverting from a US landfall with influence from TS
Humberto. As mentioned in the previous discussion, it will be very
interesting to see how models handle the systems and their
interactions, possibly with the Fujiwara effect playing out.
Will continue with a mostly dry forecast for now, with an occasional
low-end PoP along our eastern border. Temps may start the week
slightly above normal, but increasing cloud cover by mid-week
could help bring our temps back to near normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
MVFR cigs will continue to impact the terminals for a few more hours
this afternoon, but do expect improving conditions by this evening.
Some isolated showers will be possible across the region, most
likely for BWG, LEX, and RGA. Otherwise, clearing skycover will
allow terminals to return to VFR for tonight. With light winds and
most clear skycover, combined with recent rainfall, some dense fog
may develop before sunrise tomorrow for BWG, RGA, and LEX. VFR
conditions continue for tomorrow across the area.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP

NWS LMK Office Area Forecast Discussion