Valley Center, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

018
FXUS63 KICT 140355
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1055 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and storms are possible for central Kansas and
parts of south central Kansas for late tonight into tomorrow morning
- Another round of storms are expected to redevelop tomorrow
  afternoon, a few strong to marginally severe storms could
  affect locations west of I-135 after 5pm
- Unsettled weather pattern looks to be shaping up for Tuesday
  through Thursday next week with additional rounds of
  showers/storms
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a well pronounced
upper trough over the Rockies centered in Utah. This system will
continue a eastward track and spark off numerous showers/storms
over the high plains and western Kansas this afternoon/evening.
The line of showers and storms will move slowly east tonight
with a gradual decrease in coverage expected overnight. There
will be some residual activity affecting locations mainly west
of I-135 Sunday morning with low chance of producing strong or
severe weather given weak shear/elevated instability. Otherwise,
the warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front over
western Kansas will destabilize in the afternoon and set the
stage for a second round of storms. Given the increased
instability from strong daytime heating and just enough wind
shear aloft this second round of storms could yield a few
strong to marginally severe storms. The storms would then track
eastward into portions of central/south central Kansas mainly
after 5pm. Expecting the coverage of storms to decrease shortly
after sunset with loss of daytime heating.
Upper level system will pivot northeast for late Sunday night into
Monday with dry weather conditions expected. Meanwhile weather
models and associated ensembles show a upper level trough axis being
carved out over the northern plains on Tuesday with a slow east
migration heading into Thursday. This could lead to a more unsettled
weather pattern for the central plains as a series of short waves
are projected to rotate through the upper trough axis. The first
short wave will push a cold front southward from Nebraska into
Kansas on Tuesday/Tuesday night which will bring the next chance of
showers/storms to the area by Tuesday night. The surface front looks
to slow down or possibly stall out over Kansas for Wednesday with
another round of showers/storms redeveloping. The activity could
linger into Thursday before the upper level trough finally shifts
east of Kansas. The prolonged rainfall could cause some flooding
problems along with a chance for some strong storms to materialize.
There is a signal for some elevated activity to develop yet again on
Friday as another upper wave drops southward through the backside of
upper trough axis.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Light southeast winds will prevail tonight as some widely
scattered showers fester into parts of central KS. Some
lingering shower activity is possible through the morning hours
for parts of central KS although VFR is expected to prevail.
Southerly winds will begin to pick up on Sunday with some 20
knot gusts possible over central KS. Showers and thunderstorms
may also redevelop late tomorrow afternoon/early evening across
central KS possibly impacting KRSL-KGBD toward 00Z. Some MVFR
cigs could develop in the stronger shower and storm activity.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...MWM

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion