Vassar, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

085
FXUS63 KTOP 281034
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
534 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry weather is forecast to continue through the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
07Z water vapor imagery showed the mean westerlies remaining across
southern Canada with a closed low over southern CA. This had left a
broad upper ridge across the southern and central plains. Surface obs
showed weak high pressure nosing into the middle MO river valley
with a stationary boundary setup across central KS.
There is not a lot of change from the 00Z model runs and so the
forecast is also little changed. In the short term, forecast
soundings show some marginal instability developing this afternoon
along the stationary boundary. However this feature is progged to
become less defined through the afternoon with generally weak flow
in the lower troposphere. So there shouldn`t be much low level
convergence to overcome the forecast CIN to a surface parcel. A
general lack of dynamics within the ridge also suggests general
subsidence under the ridge. So dry weather is expected to persist
today. A similar airmass as Saturday`s is progged to remain over the
area today. With good insolation, highs should reach the middle and
upper 80s once again.
The 12Z ensemble data does not have a great deal of difference
through the workweek and spreads in the ensemble and NBM data
suggest a greater than average predictability in this pattern. So
have not made changes from the NBM. Shortwave energy from the closed
low out west is progged to propagate east Monday night and Tuesday.
But as it does, it shears out with models showing weak if any
vertical motion. The only sensible weather expected is some increase
in mid and high clouds that could keep highs a degree or two cooler.
After Tuesday ensembles show an upper ridge axis redeveloping with
abnormally high heights across the central plains. This looks to
keep the dry and warm weather in place. The next opportunity for
precip may come late next weekend or early next week as an upper
trough tries to move through the west. Until then a similar forecast
is expected day to day with morning lows around 60 and highs in the
middle 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
A lack of forcing or strong moisture advection is forecast to keep
VFR conditions in place.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion