Vaughan, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

746
FXUS62 KRAH 110443
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1243 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Northeast will extend down through
the Mid Atlantic and the Carolinas through much of the work week,
although a lingering frontal zone near the Carolina coast will bring
periods of clouds and unsettled weather, mainly over the eastern
Carolinas.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Wednesday...
* Continued generally cloudy east with patchy drizzle and fog
  through tonight, especially northeast.
* Fair west, but with a risk of shallow fog late.
Narrow surface ridging continues to extend through central NC from
the N, while a frontal zone off the NC coast, including a frontal
low E of the VA Tidewater, reinforces low level flow from the NNE
and N into central NC. Vis satellite imagery shows thick clouds with
a few thin patches roughly along and E of the Hwy 1 corridor, while
clouds are much fewer/thinner over the W Piedmont. Recent ACARS
soundings confirm decent low level moisture, situated beneath stable
and drier air up through the mid levels, over the E CWA and upstream
over E VA. The low will continue to progress NE along the front and
away from NC through tonight, leading to a slackening MSLP gradient
and decreasing winds. But we`ll maintain a generally NNE low level
flow tonight, which will keep a steady feed of low level moisture
into the area from E VA, and thus any cloud holes or thin spots over
the E are likely to fill back into overcast tonight, with low clouds
spreading W well into the Piedmont late tonight. Shallow moist
isentropic upglide at 295-305K is expected to return after nightfall
over the NE and Coastal Plain, and while it won`t be particularly
deep or strong, given the abundance of moisture below the inversion
aloft, periods of drizzle should return and persist overnight in the
NE, mainly from RDU/FAY to the E and NE, although the risk of any
substantial measurable rain still appears low with no ice in the
clouds. In the W, where fewer clouds should equate to quicker
radiational cooling starting this evening, there are indications in
some guidance that shallow fog is possible late, although confidence
in this is not high. Temps today have been cooler than most guidance
indicated, with highs only in the 70s except mid-upper 60s far NE,
while they reached around 80/low 80s far SW. Expect lows tonight to
range from the upper 50s W to the low 60s E. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Wednesday...
While low pressure off the North Carolina coast will be moving north
along the nearly stationary front, the flow will remain persistent
out of the north on Thursday. Similar to today, there will likely be
a gradient at sunrise of mostly sunny skies in the Triad to mostly
cloudy skies in the east. However, cloud cover should slowly scatter
out through the day. Cannot rule out an isolated shower east of US-1
along with some patchy drizzle northeast of Raleigh, but think that
the overall coverage of precipitation should be less than today.
Highs in the west should be similar to today`s values, around 80
degrees. Highs in the east should be a few degrees warmer than today
with less cloud cover. Lows should be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1240 AM Thursday...
* Dry weather with near-normal temperatures likely.
Surface ridging and high pressure will generally continue to
dominate over central North Carolina in the long term period.
Temperatures on Saturday will be a few degrees below normal, or in
the upper 70s to the low 80s, with lows in the mid-to-upper 50s.
Temperatures should rise Sunday and Monday, making Monday the
warmest day of the forecast with highs in the 80s. A dry backdoor
cold front looks to move through the region Monday with stronger
surface high pressure building back in behind it. This should allow
temperatures to drop back into the low-to-mid 80s on Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons. Moisture should be limited during the long
term period which allows for no rain expected.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 742 PM Wednesday...
Generally VFR conditions are expected at KINT/KGSO through
00z/Friday. MVFR to IFR cigs are expected with the NE flow over the
areas from KBUY and KRDU eastward through the night into around 14z-
15z/Thursday. A return to VFR cigs are forecast in these areas
during the early afternoon.
Looking beyond 00z/Friday, Slow drying taking place, central NC
terminals should be mostly VFR into early next week, with ridges of
high pressure dominating at the surface, although a few more clouds
and gusty winds are possible Fri with passage of an upper level
disturbance over the area.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Badgett/Hartfield

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion