Vaughn, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

095
FXUS65 KABQ 011957
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
157 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 148 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Dry and warm weather prevails through Friday then rainfall
  chances increase from the west Friday night. Gusty south to
  southwest winds will also increase Friday and Saturday, creating
  hazardous crosswinds for high-profile vehicles.
- Wetter than normal weather is favored for central and northern
  New Mexico next week (moderate to high confidence).
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Sun is shining in the sky, there ain`t a cloud in sight... Mr. Blue
Sky is living here today!
Beautiful fall weather with clear skies and pleasant temperatures
should be the norm all around New Mexico over the next couple of
days. Subtropical ridging over the Land of Enchantment will allow
for temperatures to climb into the mid and 80s, and even reaching
the low 90s over parts of the southeast plains, including Roswell
tomorrow. These temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees above
average for this time of year. Zonal flow today and subsidence
aloft should keep things dry through Thursday. Overall, light
winds throughout the region during the evenings, with clear skies
allowing for efficient radiational cooling in valley areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Friday afternoon will see the return of precipitation chances over
parts of northern New Mexico and breezier conditions over most of
the forecast area. A trough digging into the intermountain west will
begin to introduce increased forcing for storms and stronger flow
aloft, as well as push a cold front through the region over the
weekend. Diffluent flow ahead of the system, especially near the
right entrance region of an upper level jet streak at the base of
the trough, should provide the ascent necessary for isolated to
scattered showers to form over the Tusas and Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. At this time, instability looks to be lacking for Friday
amd Saturday, but there should be enough CAPE and shear for a few
thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and evening hours in
northern New Mexico. Lack of forcing and drier conditions should
keep storm chances for the rest of the state at little to none.
As the main trough axis swings through the central Rockies on
Saturday, the primary weather concern for New Mexico will be
breezy to gusty southwest winds. Guidance has once again continued
to hint and increasing wind speeds for Friday evening and
especially Saturday afternoon. Thirty to forty knot 700 mb winds
should mix down to the surface with diurnal heating, creating
gusty 15 to 25 mph winds for most of the region. Near wind
advisory criteria conditions of 30 to 40 mph may be observed over
the northeast highlands and northeast plains, where lee side
surface troughing east of the Colorado Rockies may be able bring
out some stronger gusts. Winds lessen heading into Sunday as the
upper level trough begins to lift into the northern plains. As the
cold front passes through New Mexico, temperatures will drop into
the low 70s for most areas, while southeastern NM and the Rio
Grande valley will remain in the 80s. Drier air behind the front
should keep rain chances to a minimum on Sunday. Guidance has been
less certain about the evolution of a backdoor front on Sunday
night moving through northeastern New Mexico. Northeast locations
such as Clayton look to get some breezy northerly winds as the
front pushes through, but there is quite a bit of disagreement
among models as to how far into New Mexico this front will advance
and whether it`s more of a Sunday night or Monday morning event.
Heading into next week, ensemble guidance continues to be in good
agreement that long wave troughing will persist over the Great
Basin. Slight subtropical ridging will once again allow for the
subtropical jet to climb into the mid latitudes and provide
favorable jet dynamics for storms to form over the Desert Southwest
as tropical moisture begins to stream north from Baja California.
Ensembles and deterministic solutions are quite similar for this far
out in time, with GEFS, NAEFs, and ENS all showing precipitable
water content 100% to 200% above normal for this time of year during
the middle of the week, yielding higher confidence for scattered to
numerous showers throughout the region. A yet to be named tropical
system will be a big player on how much moisture will make it up
into the Desert Southwest. The remnants of this system look to
climb up through Baja California and into Arizona. The question at
this time is whether New Mexico will be able to get some of the
better forcing and moisture for heavy wetting rain, or will it
only get the storm killing cloud debris.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditons will prevail throughout the period at all sites. A few
gusts of 20 to 25 kts may be observed at KGUP and KLVS this
afternoon. Winds become more light and variable over the evening,
with clear skies prevailing at all sites.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 148 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
As subtropical ridging persists over the next few days, drier and
warmer condtions will prevail. Wind speeds begin to increase on
Friday and Saturday, particularly in northeastern NM where gusts up
to 40 mph will be possible. Best chances for rain will be over north-
central New Mexico, while the rest of the area should remain dry. A
frontal passage will coincide withe the main trough axis pushing
through on Saturday, drying out conditions for Sunday. Despite
winds being strong over the weekend, fire concerns will be little,
as minimum humidity values only bottom out at at around 25%.
Temperatures will decrease behind the front, but will remain near
to slightly above average in most areas. Rain chances increase
again early next week and will likely stick around through the
rest of the workweek (moderate to high confidence).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  48  82  52  82 /   0   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  36  79  39  78 /   0   0   0   5
Cuba............................  43  77  47  77 /   0   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  41  80  43  79 /   0   0   0   5
El Morro........................  46  78  45  76 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  41  81  45  79 /   0   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  45  80  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  52  79  54  77 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  46  77  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  45  83  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  50  87  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  38  74  42  72 /   0   0   0   5
Los Alamos......................  51  76  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  48  77  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  45  75  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  37  67  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  29  71  30  70 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  40  78  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  42  76  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  45  82  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  51  77  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  47  80  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  59  82  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  55  83  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  52  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  84  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  52  85  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  52  85  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  50  85  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  53  85  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  52  85  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  54  82  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  54  84  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  56  87  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  51  77  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  52  79  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  46  80  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  42  81  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  49  75  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  48  78  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  49  79  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  55  81  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  51  74  50  72 /   0   5   0   0
Capulin.........................  46  78  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  44  81  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  43  83  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  45  78  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  52  86  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  47  81  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  49  89  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  49  86  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  51  89  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  58  89  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  57  90  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  54  88  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  56  92  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  54  85  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  51  80  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion