Venango, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

285
FXUS63 KLBF 090603
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
103 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated thunderstorms are possible across north central
  Nebraska this evening, mainly areas along and east of Highway
  83. A few thunderstorms could be strong, but the overall
  severe threat remains low.
- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible again on
  Tuesday for areas west of Highway 83. mostly driven by above
  average temperatures and low humidity.
- Temperatures remain warmer than average this week, with most
  days in the mid to upper 80s. Chances of rain are possible
  throughout the week, with better moisture possible this
  weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A surface trough is tracking across the Sandhills this afternoon,
creating a sharp moisture gradient along the boundary. To the east
of the boundary across portions of north central Nebraska, surface
dewpoints are in the 60s. Relatively clear skies have allowed for a
narrow tongue of surface based CAPE to develop across the region,
providing sufficient instability for shower and thunderstorm
activity this evening. As the surface trough tracks near the Highway
83 corridor, isolated thunderstorms are expected to fire along the
boundary and track east late this afternoon and evening. Relatively
marginal deep layer shear is available, generally on the order of 25
to 30 kts. While the environment is not overall the best severe
weather set up, given the combination of ingredients, isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening, with a few
potentially strong thunderstorms. While the overall severe threat
appears low at this time, cannot completely rule out a few of the
stronger cells introducing a threat for small hail and strong winds.
Tomorrow, northwesterly flow aloft will continue to track wildfire
smoke from the West Coast and British Columbia across the region.
Those sensitive to smoke may want to take precautions tomorrow, as
smoke is likely to mix to the surface.
Temperatures remain on the warmer side tomorrow, with widespread
highs in the mid to upper 80s. West of Highway 83, afternoon
relative humidity values drop into the 20 to 25 percent range. With
the heat and low humidity, elevated fire weather concerns are
possible again across western Nebraska. Keeping the threat somewhat
limited, winds are expected to be fairly light out of the east to
southeast, with occasional gusts up to 20 mph.
Tuesday night, another round of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible across western Nebraska and the Sandhills as a low tracks
across Kansas. Overall forcing across the region is weak, so
expecting any shower and thunderstorm activity will be fairly
scattered as it tracks across western Nebraska. Given that this is
likely to be very scattered, will keep PoPs low for Tuesday night,
generally less than 20 percent. Mostly cloudy skies should continue
to keep overnight lows slightly warmer, with lows in the mid 50s to
low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
An upper level trough slowly tracks across the western United
States, keeping us mostly in a ridge pattern. This will keep
temperatures warmer than average through the end of the week. Daily
highs remain mostly in the mid to upper 80s, with some locations
breaking into the lower 90s. In fact, highs on Friday could be near
90 degrees for a good portion of the forecast region, especially
along the HIghway 83 corridor. For reference, this is typically the
time of year when our average highs begin to drop from around 83
degrees to 81 degrees.
With the trough remaining to the east, there should be sufficient
upper level support for a few surface systems to introduce low end
precipitation chances through the end of the week. Precipitation
chances remain fairly meager however, generally less than 20 to 30
percent through the rest of this week. Ensembles further back this
up, with both the GEFS and European ensembles showing a maximum of a
30 percent chance of one tenth of an inch of rain or better through
the end of this week. Ensembles begin to show some better
probabilities this weekend, as the upper level trough tracks further
east. As this happens, a cold front is expected to track across the
region, bumping our precipitation chances from 40 to 70 percent in
the ensembles for one tenth of an inch of rain or better. The cold
front is also expected to bring slightly more seasonal temperatures
this weekend, potentially dropping highs back into the lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Areas of MVFR and IFR will develop across portions of central
into southwest Nebraska early this morning. These conditions
will linger until mid-morning when conditions will improve. All
areas should be VFR by this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible across the central Sandhills into the Panhandle
by late afternoon. These may move eastward across the area
during the evening hours.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion