Verndale, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

698
FXUS63 KFGF 261438
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
938 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chance of thunderstorms in far northwest MN ahead of cold
  front this evening.
- Continued well above normal temps into early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Clear skies continue this morning with no weather impacts
occurring through the remainder of the morning. Winds will
continue to increase from the southeast and increase our
temperatures fairly quickly through the day today.
UPDATE
Issued at 658 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Skies are clear. High pressure has moved east so that all areas
now have a SSE wind developing. This is going as forecast so no
changes.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...Synopsis...
High pressure centered near Baudette and International Falls at
08z. Calm conditions in this area allowing temps to drop into
the upper 30s and low 40s. High slides east quickly early this
morning with a southeast then south wind increasing thru the
today, first in eastern ND and the Red River valley. Strongest
wind gusts in the northeast ND and the northern Red River valley
with gusts 25-30 kts. Cold front from the west moves into DVL
region late afternoon and east thru the valley early evening and
into NW/WC MN late evening and overnight. A narrow ribbon of
instability does develop with MUCAPE values nearing 1000 j/kg in
far NW MN 00z in an area where 30 kt 0-6 km bulk shear exists
along with a narrow zone of dew pts in the 55-58 range. It looks
like a good chance for a band of t-storms to form 00z-03z into
far NW MN and eastern Manitoba ahead of the front moving into
Baudette area 03z-06z then exists. How far south precip chances
get is uncertain, but for now will stick where models indicate
850 mb moisture is higher which is mainly near and north of
Bemidji-Thief River Falls-Grafton ND.
Brief gusty WNW winds behind the front in E ND this evening,
then high pressure builds east later tonight into Saturday.
Sunny this weekend into early next week as 500 mb heights rise
ahead of likely upper trough moving into the west coast and
western Canada. GFS is the odd man out and does have a few
showers in a warm advection pattern Monday aftn along the Intl
Border. Warm Monday with highs 78-86 from north to south.
Rest of next week, shows low confidence due to model run
variability with overall ensemble consensus keeping a low chance
for precip mid to late week as area in SW flow aloft, but any
major 500 mb systems remain well west.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 658 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Skies clear today, though increase in mid clouds north of Hwy 2
ahead of front late day and evening. At this time highest
chances for any shower or t-storm this evening is north of the
TAF sites along Manitoba/Minnesota border. Gusty winds the main
issue today as south-southeast winds with gusts 25-30 kts
developing northeast ND and far northwest MN. Wind shift to the
west occurring DVL area around 00z and then in the 02z-05s
period GFK/FAR and 05z to 09z period TVF/BJI.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Perroux/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion