Vivian, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

038
FXUS63 KABR 282033
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
333 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Abnormally warm temperatures (Highs in the mid to upper 80s, 15-
  20 degrees above normal) will be in place through most of this
  coming week.
- Dry and windy conditions will persist through the middle of the
  week. Southerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected through
  Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Surface weather map analysis this afternoon shows a well defined
trough of low pressure centered across the western Dakotas into the
Northern High Plains with high pressure centered across the western
Great Lakes region. A tight pressure gradient in between developed
across our CWA today and has led to gusty south to southeast winds
between 25-35 mph this afternoon. This windy trend is just the
beginning of what looks to be a windy period at least through mid
week. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s to low 80s in our
east to the low to mid 80s across our western forecast area.
Not much in the way of expected change in the sfc pattern through
the next few days. Lower pressure remains confined to the western
Dakotas while high pressure sets up residency across the Great
Lakes. This will lead to successive days of gusty southerly winds
Monday through Wednesday generally ranging between 20-35 mph. This
strong low level flow is pulling in some gulf moisture with dew
points across western SD into the mid to upper 50s this afternoon.
This higher low level moisture will gradually advect eastward into
the remaining forecast zones tonight into Monday. This will result
in very mild overnights with temperature readings expected to only
fall to around 60 degrees if not some low to mid 60s the next few
mornings. These values land near record warm lows for this time of
year. Upper level ridging building overhead today will maintain
control over the area for at least one more day Monday before
shortwave trough energy rotates into the region on southwest flow
aloft. Abnormally warm temperatures will result through the majority
of this upcoming week. Daily highs in the low to mid 80s are likely
with some areas seeing mid to upper 80s possible at times. The
persistent southerly flow will maintain higher low level moisture
with dew point temperatures in the 50s to low 60s which should
curtail any fire weather concerns given the dry, windy and warm
pattern.
Long range guidance is suggesting that an upper trough will work
it`s way inland from the Pacific Northwest and begin to dig into the
Rockies toward the end of the week. Lee side cyclogenesis would
result from this pattern as southwest flow aloft increases into our
region. The current iteration of NBM probabilities of 0.1" or more
range from 20-40 percent late this week. However, confidence in the
timing and coverage of any rain remains low due to model
inconsistencies in the overall upper flow pattern. This system does
however appear to be the next meaningful chance for precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
Gusty southerly winds will be the primary concern the remainder
of today. South to southeast wind gusts will continue to range
between 25-30 knots with some locally higher gusts at times. These
winds will gradually relax this evening through the overnight
hours, but then restrengthen by the end of this forecast period.
Mid to high clouds will slowly thicken later this afternoon into
tonight from west to east across central and northeast South
Dakota. A low level jet will set up overnight leading to some low
level wind shear at KPIR early Monday.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...Vipond

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion