Vulcan, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

384
FXUS63 KMQT 140658
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
258 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and humid weather through early next week.
- Areas of fog expected early this morning and potentially again
  tonight; fog could be dense.
- Cooler air moves back in for the late week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
An omega block slowly trudging through the Great Lakes region today
through early this week will keep the area dry today through tonight
as the high pressure ridging will inhibit convective potential. That
being said, we could see some fog early this morning before sunrise
and again tonight, with some spots potentially being dense; indeed,
we are already seeing fog in the Keweenaw already this morning, with
some spots being dense. Therefore, a Dense Fog Advisory has been
issued for the Keweenaw until 9 AM EDT this morning. Will to
continue to keep an eye on satellite imagery, local webcams, and
observations over the next several hours as additional Dense Fog
Advisories or an SPS or two could be issued in the near future.
Moving into the daylight hours today, expect a nice, calm day that`s
pretty much a rinse-and-repeat of yesterday. The only difference
that you may notice is temperatures potentially being a degree or
two warmer in the interior areas and the lakeshores being a little
cooler, as the lake breezes off of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan
look to have a more easterly component by this afternoon thanks to
the omega block continuing its slow walk eastward. As we continue
into the overnight hours, expect the mostly clear skies to allow
temperatures to drop into the 50s once again, with guidance once
again hinting at fog forming late (potentially being dense).
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
For the early part of the week the upper level ridge will begin to
shift east and break down. While warm conditions will continue,
expect the chances for showers and thunderstorms to return by the
middle-to-end of the week as multiple shortwaves eject from the
central Rockies northward through the Plains ahead of the western
trough. These systems will just skirt the area with
shower/thunderstorm chances confined to the very far west on Tuesday
(if that). As the trough progresses east, the chance for
showers/thunderstorms returns to the rest of the area for mid-to-
late week. Deterministic model guidance diverges quite a bit with
the evolution of the western trough as it pushes east mid to late
week. The latest (00z) GFS has a low moving from the Northern Plains
and dipping towards the Mid-Mississippi Valley before lifting
northeast into the Great Lakes region this weekend. Meanwhile, the
latest Euro has a more northerly track to the low, allowing for
multiple round of showers and storms to impact the U.P. from the
middle-to-end of the week; the track of the low will depend on the
strength of the high pressure ridging dropping down from northern
Ontario for the latter half of this week. While the current
deterministic Euro is showing a fairly robust low late over the
Great Lakes this week, the dayshift from yesterday did highlight
ensemble cluster analysis showing most of the ensembles (90%)
favoring a solution with weak upper level troughing over the Great
Lakes as it undercuts the ridge, with deeper troughing remaining
over eastern Canada; a smaller set (10%) of ensembles favored a
deeper upper level trough developing over the Great Lakes. Thus,
while latest NBM still has a notable temperature drop over the U.P.
for late this week into the weekend (highs dropping into the 60s to
perhaps the upper 50s), I have my suspicions that we will remain at
60+.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
The 6Z TAF period starts with BR/FG deteriorating conditions at all
sites through this morning as ample low level moisture and calm
winds are present. IWD is only expected to see vis restrictions down
to MVFR/high-end IFR early this morning. CMX/SAW will lower to LIFR
with periods of VLIFR anticipated prior to sunrise. IWD should
improve to VFR by 13Z with CMX/SAW likely struggling to improve to
VFR until around 16-19Z. Otherwise, winds increase out of the E to
SE around 8 kts for Sun afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Light winds of generally 20 knots or less dominate through most of
this week as a block of high pressure moving overhead slowly leaves
eastward with time. The one exception is over the far west today,
where northeast to easterly gusts of 20 to 25 knots could be seen.
In addition to the lighter winds, we could see some areas of dense
fog across Lake Superior from early this morning through tonight.
While the latest satellite and webcam imagery (as well as
observations) is mainly just showing low-level stratus early this
morning, will keep an eye out in the case that fog forms given the
favorable setup (a Dense Fog Advisory could be issued in the near
future).
With shortwave lows lifting over the Northern Plains early this
week, we could see a few showers and storms near Duluth/the far
western lake Monday and Tuesday. As the high pressure block retreats
eastward by mid-week and troughing begins to push in, we could see
some showers and storms begin to advect into the rest of the lake
from Wednesday onward; it will depend the track and strength of a
low moving from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes for the
latter half of the week. We could also see winds pick up from the
northeast too late in the work week, although again this will depend
on the strength of the aforementioned low as well as the strength of
the ridging coming down from northern Ontario at that time.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ001-003.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...NL/TAP
AVIATION...Jablonski
MARINE...TAP

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion