Walnut Grove, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

162
FXUS64 KBMX 181809
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
109 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
Central Alabama remains in a hot and dry overall pattern with
dominant surface ridging present across the Deep South stretching
northeastward into the Appalachians. Northerly flow aloft
continues to advect drier air southward in the 700 to 500mb layer,
which will limit widespread convective development this afternoon.
However, isolated showers and storms will remain possible as
indicated by CAMs with the best chance for storms along and south
of the I-20 corridor. A few orographically-initiated storms will
also be possible from Birmingham northeastward along the I-59
corridor and across the eastern counties near Mt. Cheaha. A fairly
agitated cumulus field is developing across much of the forecast
area as we approach 1pm, with the first isolated showers already
developing. If you`re lucky to find a shower or storm move over
your location, gusty winds can also be expected. Otherwise, most
folks will stay rain-free and hot temperatures will continue
through the afternoon, topping out in the low to middle 90s.
That`s between 5 and 10 degrees above normal for mid-September.
Dewpoints should mix down into the upper 50s to lower 60s with an
ample amount of dry air aloft, keeping heat indices at bay.
Following a mild and calm night, winds aloft will shift from the
west during the day on Friday as a 500mb vort max approaches from
the northwest. A few additional showers and storms are currently
forecast for locations along the I-22 corridor as this feature
arrives Friday afternoon. Additional isolated showers and storms
will remain in the forecast elsewhere as highs top out in the low
to mid 90s once again.
56/GDG
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
Shower and thunderstorm chances over the weekend aren`t too
dissimilar from earlier in the week; most areas remain dry with
models showing a signal for isolated activity for parts of the
Gulf Coast region. High temperatures in the 90s are expected.
Models show a jet impulse currently over the north Pacific
yielding an upper-level low near the central U.S. by early to mid
next week. While the configuration is a bit different amongst
model members, the overall pattern would support a broad area of
lift across the region. Shower/thunderstorm chances have climbed a
touch, now ~30% by the NBM for a couple days next week, and may
do so again looking at the coverage on GFS/ECMWF ensembles, should
this signal hold.
89^GSatterwhite
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Isolated
SHRA/TSRA will develop this afternoon, but confidence isn`t high
enough to include any mention in the vicinity or TEMPO at this
time. Surface winds will remain light out of the north to
northwest this afternoon, becoming calm overnight. Light northerly
winds will continue once again on Friday.
56/GDG
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon minimum RHs will be as low as the lower to middle 30s
for parts of Central Alabama through the weekend. Minimum
percentages will be a tad higher next week as a weather system
approaches with slightly higher dew points. Showers and
thunderstorms remain limited in coverage through the weekend, with
perhaps a trend toward scattered coverage next week. Though there
may be some directional variability at times, winds should favor
a northwest to north heading today and Friday. Saturday may be
variable as we trend toward southerly flow Sunday onward.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     63  92  63  93 /  10  20   0  20
Anniston    65  91  65  91 /  10  20   0  20
Birmingham  67  93  68  94 /  10  20   0  20
Tuscaloosa  67  95  68  95 /  20  20   0  20
Calera      66  94  67  94 /  20  20   0  20
Auburn      67  91  68  90 /  20  20   0  20
Montgomery  68  94  67  93 /  20  20   0  20
Troy        67  92  66  91 /  20  20   0  20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...56/GDG

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion