Walsh, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

572
FXUS65 KPUB 112010
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
210 PM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rounds of showers and storms to continue tonight and Friday,
  with the best coverage over and near the higher terrain.
- Some stronger storms with potentially heavier rainfall are possible,
  mainly over the higher terrain along the Continental Divide.
- Showers and thunderstorms continue into Saturday, with strong
  to severe storms possible over our eastern plains.
- Warmer and drier weather expected for Sunday and Monday, with
  near normal temperatures and rain chances returning by mid-
  week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Currently...Upper trough persist across the western third of the
country, with the upper low centroid located over southeastern OR
and northern NV. This was producing brisk southwest flow aloft
across the Four Corners, with persistent moisture advection
continuing for the western half of CO. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms have developed across the higher terrain this
afternoon, with all activity streaming to the northeast. Temps have
warmed into the 60s to around 70F for the high valleys as of 1 PM,
and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains.
Tonight...Not a lot of movement anticipated for the upper trough to
the west, which translates to continued moisture advection into
western CO through the short term. SPC has painted much of the area
within a Marginal for severe wx potential, and latest model severe
parameters point to 1000-1500 j/kg of CAPE and up to 45 kts of shear
across the higher terrain late this afternoon and eve, so the
greatest probability of stronger storms will be found across the
west and just sparse coverage for the east this evening. However,
latest HREF, HRRR and NAMNest runs still show cells pushing to the
east-northeast across the eastern plains tonight, with much of the
activity then retreating west to the higher terrain by 10, 11 PM.
Greatest threat from any of the stronger storms this eve will be
gusty outflow winds of 50-60 mph, periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall and small hail. Plan on overnight low temps in the 40s to
around 50F for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the
plains.
Friday...While the upper trough does not move much, the low center
begins to migrate gradually to the north up into the Intermountain
West. Moisture advection continues for the state, but models
indicate that the focus for thunderstorm development will key in on
the Continental Divide. SPC has drawn a Marginal for severe wx
potential over much of western CO including the Divide, while
WPC has highlighted western CO within a Marginal to Slight area
for excessive rainfall. Given the brisk flow aloft, feel that
storms will be on the move and though the potential for periods
of heavier rainfall increases along the Continental Divide,
decided to hold off on any flood watch at this time. Model CAPE
is not the best but bulk shear across the higher terrain jumps
up to 50-60 kts in places, so an additional threat from stronger
storms will be gusty outflow winds to near 60 mph. Convection
chances across the mts will increase to likely or even
categorical along the Divide, with scattered pcpn drifting
across the I-25 Corridor during the afternoon, and isolated to
dry further east. Look for highs in the 60s to around 70F for
the high valleys, and 80s to lower 90s for the plains. Moore
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Friday Night and Saturday..
Models finally begin to bring the trough axis through during this
timeframe, though there is still some disagreement on timing
and amplitude of the trough as it passes overhead. The general
consensus seems to bring the trough axis into the Great Basin by
early Saturday morning. Though the Low itself barely moves on
Saturday, the trough axis seems to swing through late Saturday
evening as the trough becomes more negatively tilted. This setup
will likely keep showers and thunderstorms going well into the
overnight over portions of the high country on Friday night,
with overnight lows dipping down into the 40s for mountain
valleys, 50s over the I-25 corridor, and low 60s on our eastern
plains. Showers and thunderstorms look to continue over the high
country on Saturday, with chances for heavy rainfall and flash
flooding continuing as well. A dryline setup also appears
possible on our eastern plains on Saturday, which will mean
chances for severe thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and
Saturday evening. At this time, highest chances for severe
thunderstorms look to be east of I-25. Daytime highs on Saturday
look to climb into the 70s for mountain valleys, the Palmer
Divide, and the Raton Mesa, and 80s elsewhere on our plains.
Cooler air filters in behind the departing the trough Saturday
night into Sunday, especially over the high country. This will
mean overnight lows around around 8 to 10 degrees cooler
Saturday night than Friday night. Near freezing temperatures
will be possible across the San Luis Valley early Sunday
morning, with lows in the 40s and low 50s on our plains.
Sunday and Monday..
We warm up and dry out through this period, as another low begins to
take shape over the northern Rockies. For Sunday, our flow aloft
transitions from northwesterly in the morning to zonal by the end of
the days. Daytime highs on Sunday look to be around 3 to 5 degrees
cooler than normal, with highs in the 70s over our mountain valleys,
the Palmer Divide, and the Raton Mesa, and highs in the 80s
elsewhere on the plains. We warm up several degrees on Monday, as
our flow aloft transitions to southwesterly ahead of the approaching
system. Widespread highs in the 80s will be possible on the plains,
with a few 90s likely over the Lower Arkansas Rive Valley. Showers
and thunderstorms are not likely either day, but there will be very
slight (less than 30%) chances for isolated convection over the
Pikes Peak region on Sunday and over our southern mountains on
Monday.
Tuesday Onwards..
There is a lot of disagreement from Tuesday onwards, mainly because
models do not seem to have a good clue on the timing, track, or
amplitude of this next northern Rockies low at this time. For now,
the system looks to pass by to our north, increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms through mid-week across much of the area,
but especially for our mountains. We also look to cool back down to
near or just below normal for temperatures after its passage to our
north.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Widespread mid and high level cloudiness across the higher terrain
and I-25 Corridor through much of the forecast period due to an
upper trough over the western US pushing abundant moisture up into
CO. Showers and thunderstorms expected over the mts and adjacent
plains/valleys, affecting all three TAF sites in roughly the 21z-03z
timeframe today. Main concerns will be variable gusts up to 35 kts,
brief periods of moderate to heavy rain that would reduce
visibility, and potentially small hail. Convection further east
across the plains should be more sparse and not as strong.
Generally, VFR conditions anticipated for much of the area over the
next 24 hs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and
KALS. Specifics broken out below.
KCOS: South winds increasing with gusts to 22 kts by 19z, with
PROB30 wording for -TSRA and variable gusts to 35 kts from 21z-02z. -
SHRA may linger beyond 02z but confidence too low to include in TAF.
Intermittent MVFR cigs and vsby possible due to passing convection
but again, confidence too low to include.
KPUB: Southwest winds increasing with gusts to 22 kts by 19z, with
PROB30 wording for -TSRA and variable gusts to 35 kts from 22z-02z.
Intermittent MVFR cigs and vsby possible due to passing convection
but confidence too low to include.
KALS: PROB30 wording for -TSRA and variable gusts to 35 kts from 21z-
03z. PROB30 wording for -SHRA  and MVFR cigs from 03z-05z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...MOORE

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion