Warba, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

467
FXUS63 KDLH 200151
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
851 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong winds at the head of Lake Superior create rip currents
  at beaches across the Twin Ports today and potentially again
  Saturday.
- Areas of dense fog from east-central Minnesota to along the
  North Shore is expected tonight.
- On and off rain showers with a few non-severe thunderstorms
  are expected through the weekend into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Current Conditions/tonight:
Radar this afternoon continues to shows scattered coverage of
showers across the Upper Midwest. Surface analysis shows a low
pressure over western MN that is beginning to fill. Aloft we still
have two upper level lows that continue to dance around each other.
The first is over the MN River Valley and the second resides over
the Canadian Prairies. Both features continue to produce lobes of
vorticity increasing synoptic forcing over the region and producing
our scattered showers. A few breaks in the clouds can be seen this
afternoon over southern MN and central WI that may allow us to build
in some weak instability by the evening hours. Our thunderstorm
chances still remain low but can`t rule out a rumble of thunder at
times as these scattered showers continue into the overnight period.
Additionally, there is some concern for dense fog tonight. Currently
webcams show the low cloud is primarily impacting locations on top
of the hill here in Duluth and over towards the Thompson Hill area.
For now, we have an SPS running through 9PM due to the isolated
nature of the fog. Some of the high res guidance wants to
expand this up the North Shore and into central St. Louis county
overnight.
Weekend:
Gradual movement from the pair of upper level lows impacting the
region will lead to continued rain chances. NBM guidance suggests
precipitation chances will taper off after Sunday. However, the 12Z
suite of deterministic guidance still has a fair bit of low level
moisture lingering over the region through then with some additional
shortwaves still in the mix. The EAGLE Ensemble is also holding onto
some rain chances across the Arrowhead and into NW WI through Monday
evening so we have opted to increase PoPs to match. The dry mid
levels however may lead to this being more of a drizzle then rain
scenario.
Next Week:
Activity settles down next week as an elongated upper level ridge
spans from the Northern Rockies into eastern Ontario. Drier air will
be more prevalent under this feature with upper level lows
undercutting this feature and diving through the central portions of
the Midwest. With the surface high pressure primarily parked over
eastern Ontario we will see fairly persistent easterly winds across
the region leading to more seasonable temperatures around the Lake.
However, farther inland temps will be 5-10F warmer than usual with
highs in the low 70s for much of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Multiple rounds of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms move
through the Northland this entire TAF period. Expect areas of
dense fog tonight from the Brainerd Lakes to the Twin Ports and
along the North Shore. Northeast winds into the Twin Ports
gradually decrease 03-09Z tonight. Terminals along the North
Shore will likely see an extended period of VLIFR conditions
beyond this TAF period into Sunday morning.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 848 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Northeast winds have continued to decrease in speed this
evening. The Gale Warning has been dropped as of this writing
and replaced with a Small Craft Advisory through Saturday
morning. All the rest of the nearshore waters remain with Small
Craft Advisories as well tonight. As the pressure gradient
becomes less pronounced overnight, wind speeds will further
decrease. Lingering elevated swell though from the sustained
winds over the last 36 hours being strong will create hazardous
conditions to small craft though even under the lighter easter
winds Saturday morning.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ037.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ121-148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ140>147-
     150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion